Apparently I'm underpaid lol, someone upthread says "Friend getting paid $200k more than me" and I've never been paid $200k in my life

Only a very small proportion of developers make enough that they can be making what must have been north of $200k and still have another $200k difference in comp vs a peer. Low side of single-digit percentage. And I’m talking the US only, not globally.

The company puts A LOT of effort into its program for hiring new grads. But is horribly inept when it comes to providing a career path for individual contributors.

So unless you manage to get a promotion to a senior IC position (like me), your compensation stagnates.

What market is down?

The regular software engineering market is very rough to get jobs in right now, particularly at lower levels of experience

Agreed. This is in line with experience of friends (Metro Denver, USA). Even senior folks are having a harder time than in the past few years.

Low to mid experience and trying to land FAANG-alike or finance jobs, I think. The “merely” 1.5-3x median household income comp range sure seems to have remained healthy, even for newbies.