Under what circumstances would Russia feel a need to invade Ukraine if they didn't fear NATO involvement? It is pretty clear in the current war that exactly what the Russian leadership feared was happening - a pushover country on their border was being militarised by the US. In hindsight they must feel naive for not being more paranoid and bulking up their military before going in. The NATO enlargement is a broad strategy of threatening Russia and building up force to use against them. And the political rhetoric out of the US on Russia has been unhinged since at least 2016. The Russians would be stupid not to be scared and this invasion of Ukraine looks like a desperation play through that lens.
Ukraine is a great example of what US support does - if the US had told them that they're on their own, Ukraine would have just gone with whatever Russia wanted diplomatically.
Instead, a lot of Ukrainian's are dead, they've lost a double-digit percentage of their country, the west is hell-bent on destabilising the leadership that controls the world's largest nuclear arsenal, it looks like we're escalating into a WWIII style situation because the US deterrence is failing and Ukraine is STILL likely to end up having to do what Russia wants. Technically not maybe because they've lost the territory that Russia was most interested in.
The US shouldn't be involved in militarily organising Eastern Europe. It has not helped, it seems to be making war a certainty.
Ukraine was faced with a choice - do what the US wanted, or do what Russia wanted. The US choice resulted in massive death, destruction and so far it looks like Russia is going to get what they wanted anyway.
What would the downside have been of just folding before the troops started moving?
> And yes sure, Russia is nust defending itself
Best defence is a good offence. They're flailing under strategic pressure from the US.
They knew perfectly well it would involve massive death and possibly years of fighting. But they know their long history with their "brotherly" neighbors to the north, and hence, that even these costs would be preferable to perpetual subjugation.
If you can't recognize this fact -- if you think they're just passive puppets who do whatever the US tells them to; or that they aren't capable of evaluating the costs and risks and making a decision to side with their families and their future -- then not only have you not been following the chain of events since the start of the invasion (in which the US basically told them capitulate, after all); you really have no understanding of how human beings work when their families and communities are threatened.
Best defence is a good offence. They're flailing under strategic pressure from the US.
Nobody pressured them to do anything. Russia's actions are all offense, full stop.
> ...if you think they're just passive puppets who do whatever the US tells them to
They're obviously not passive puppets. They had a choice - they could do what the US wanted, or what Russia wanted. That is more agency than most countries get when facing an existential crisis.
However, given that they chose to align with the US and we now have people talking in uncontroversial statements about it being a "pre-war era" the unfortunate reality here is that the option the US gave them was/is a diplomatic disaster that is very much in line with the US's NATO expansion strategy that they've been executing for the last 30-something years. It is a bad strategy that is leading to war.
> Nobody pressured them to do anything. Russia's actions are all offense, full stop.
Avoiding war requires both sides to reach some sort of mutual understanding. The Russian's aren't going to buy that bullshit. A lot of their troops just died because of NATO arms, held by troops that were at least in part NATO-trained, using NATO intelligence and NATO-approved strategies in a war that is part of a broad strategic push, by NATO, into Eastern Europe. They've figured out the role that NATO is playing here; the plan is obviously to contain and militarily cripple Russia.
That style of rhetorical bullying is very prevalent amongst western leadership, but if we want to find a peaceful solution they should be more honest. They provoked this.
Avoiding war requires both sides to reach some sort of mutual understanding.
When the aggressor stations 200,000 troops at your border -- it isn't about "reaching a mutual understanding". The only "understanding" he is asking for by that point is that you lay back and let him have his way with you.
You're basically repeating standard propaganda lines here; I don't see this being a productive discussion.
> The only "understanding" he is asking for by that point is that you lay back and let him have his way with you.
Ukraine seems to have lost about 25% of their population, 10% of their land and their electricity network is being shelled. Who knows how long it will take for their economy to recover. There is a lot of room among those statistics for debate about whether just folding immediately would have been better or worse.
And Ukraine isn't really holding any cards here, any negotiations need to happen between there US and Russia. Getting good outcomes requires the US state department to get some actual statespersons involved instead of whoever has managed to push Europe to this pre-war mindset.
> You're basically repeating standard propaganda lines
If we're going to start slinging insults here, you're showing a dire lack of tactical empathy. You're not going to understand diplomacy unless you can get in to the headspace of people you don't agree with.
Ukraine is a great example of what US support does - if the US had told them that they're on their own, Ukraine would have just gone with whatever Russia wanted diplomatically.
Instead, a lot of Ukrainian's are dead, they've lost a double-digit percentage of their country, the west is hell-bent on destabilising the leadership that controls the world's largest nuclear arsenal, it looks like we're escalating into a WWIII style situation because the US deterrence is failing and Ukraine is STILL likely to end up having to do what Russia wants. Technically not maybe because they've lost the territory that Russia was most interested in.
The US shouldn't be involved in militarily organising Eastern Europe. It has not helped, it seems to be making war a certainty.