Check out the 24h chart on https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7456/Who-wil...

richrichie · 2024-05-31T05:46:22 1717134382

51/35 now

https://www.realclearpolling.com/betting-odds/2024/president

mcphage · 2024-05-31T12:06:59 1717157219

I’m sorry, do those odds claim that Obama has an almost 4% chance of becoming president?

laverya · 2024-05-31T12:46:35 1717159595

Michelle Obama, yes.

mcphage · 2024-05-31T16:15:47 1717172147

That's... fascinating.

bjt1997 · 2024-05-31T12:45:20 1717159520

I think it is Michelle Obama. That's what the "market" thinks. You are welcome to "arbitrage" it with some $!

Biden has a non zero probability of dying before the election (of natural causes). Plus DNC nomination is a super pac driven process. Math might just compute.

senordevnyc · 2024-05-31T13:43:03 1717162983

Biden has a non zero probability of dying before the election (of natural causes).

So does Trump, who is arguably in worse health, even if slightly younger.

mcphage · 2024-05-31T16:14:49 1717172089

> Biden has a non zero probability of dying before the election (of natural causes). Plus DNC nomination is a super pac driven process. Math might just compute.

So the odds of Biden dying, times the odds of Michelle Obama wanting to run, times the odds of the DNC not picking Kamala Harris—the current VP, times the odds of Michelle Obama actually winning, might work out to 4%?

...uh... I don't even know what to say about that.

bjt1997 · 2024-06-01T05:11:49 1717218709

You can just put money where your mouth is. Some betting sites offer contracts you can buy and sell.

mcphage · 2024-06-01T05:25:08 1717219508

Hmm, yes, getting into financial contracts with people who live in cloud cuckoo land, for a few percentage points that get eaten up by the site itself seems like a good idea.

bjt1997 · 2024-06-01T06:32:14 1717223534

Correct attitude. Stay away from financial contracts.