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The slope has changed between 10 years and ago.

You are free to disagree, but don't pretend like you don't understand what the AI crowd is saying.




Never in the history of man has the slope of progress been linear. The AI crowd is entirely predicated on a platitude.


AI right now is like covid in March or climate change in the 1980s. It's no longer a real intellectual debate on whether it will arrive (that is basically over by 2022) now it's an emotional battle where people are incapable of accepting that such a possibility can exist vs actually calculating


> AI right now is like covid in March

March 2021 yeah, well known all over the world, everyone talks about it but not much has really changed in a while. Some fear COVID might mutate into something deadlier, and some think generative AI will turn into something completely different.

The quick pace was GPT-2 and GPT-3, those happened 2019 and 2020, today it is a crawl in comparison, GPT-3 was like covid in march-2020, at the time most were barely aware of it but today it is mainstream.

The revolution you are talking about has already happened, people all over the world interact with their computer using natural language, so your prediction here is a bit late.


Did we experience the same thing? March 2020 saw explosion in nyc and much of mainland US and widespread lockdowns. However many people were convinced the lockdowns would last two weeks at most with covid dropping to near zero (in hindsight completely ridiculous low probability thinking)


Yeah, that isn't generative AI today, the explosion already happened. At best you can call the explosion ChatGPT, but that was already 1.5 years ago.

Not much unexpected will happen now unless a new breakthrough is made. Similarly covid in march 2021 were well understood and not much would happen unless it mutated into a much deadlier strain, which of course is unlikely to happen. Covid in march 2021 was still a massive thing, as is AI today, but just that it is a massive well understood thing not something that will completely change the world in the future.


Agreed, but might push that back to January 2020

By the second week of March I was well aware of COVID. By the third I was locked in my apartment.

In January someone at the airport in Bangkok thought it was important to scan my body as I arrived, but I had no idea why


Depending on your reference point, a sigmoid and an exponential curve look the same.


True but i think some sigmoid curves have very low probability. Like COVID doing down right after it spread in NYC


The slope changed between 1980 and 1990.

The slope changed between 1990 and 2000.

There's a pattern somewhere, here.


Between 2000 and 2020 slope was lousy. Or, frame it the other way, the rest were catching up with the best.




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