Nah, the Brazilian government will lose this round. X is not going to cave, and the government doesn’t have the technological capacity to quickly spin up their own Great Firewall.
I bet China would be happy to help. It also cracks me up that people on this site were almost entirely in favor of a TikTok ban, but when it’s someone else’s government doing what amounts to the same thing then they’re “heading down a dark path”. Could folks please make up their minds and not treat the US as though it’s exempt from the “dark paths”?
I've heard that for 15 years straight, they went for adult content RealID before going for VPNs - which, if your beliefs end up being true - was a ridiculous order of priority. Thus, I don't think they'll go for VPNs.
If you believe X advocates free speech, you have an imperfect view of X or free speech. Maybe they made your political speech more permissible, but they are clamping down hard on other speech.
Free speech absolutists should be just as irritated by today's X as yesterday's Twitter. Subbing out one set of permitted speech for a different set is not a free speech win.
I don't know what you mean by "the average person" but most of my friends in Brazil, even the relatively tech illiterates, not only know what a VPN is but many or even most of them either have paid or currently pay for one.