I think later rounds generally have lower return expectations - if you assume the stock market will return ~10%/year, you probably only need it to 2X by IPO time (depending on how long that takes) for your overall fund's IRR to beat the stock market.
You would if it were the fund’s only investment. But it won’t be. And this is still not a mature company, as their expenses currently vastly outnumber revenue, so there’s always a chance of failure.
Your general sense that the later stage higher dollar figure raises look for a lower multiple than the earlier ones is correct, but they’d consider 2x a dud.
