Prediction markets had this a fair few hours ago, which is interesting. https://...

creato · 2024-11-06T09:14:16 1730884456

The prediction markets pretty closely tracked NYT's probability estimate, which seems like the best possible analysis of the available data (partial current results, complete past results, at the precinct level).

Anything else would have been surprising.

rapsey · 2024-11-06T08:50:49 1730883049

And the pollsters were all so wrong. I guess we are in a new era of prediction markets.

JumpCrisscross · 2024-11-06T09:01:21 1730883681

> the pollsters were all so wrong

They were wrong by about 3 points nationally, which is a normal error.