While this seems like a fairly rapid doom and gloom scenario if you think about it in the context of a single term, one has to wonder about what happens in 4 years. He had no problem trying to subvert previous elections. With all branches of government falling in line, it seems like he'll have plenty of time to do as he pleases. So I don't think this is all that far fetched if we look at it as a decade or two process. Obviously he'll die at some point but I imagine he'd appoint a similar successor.
But Americans knew this because of Jan 6, so it's what we deserve I guess.
With now full control of the government, it is trivial for him to have the supreme court overturn the 22nd amendment and rig a third election. Absolutely trivial.
I hope you're right and I hope I'm wrong. I don't think it'll be an outright repeal of the 22nd amendment, but it'll instead be some sort of cheeky way around it using "emergency powers" and gray areas in the courts, because we saw how easily the supreme Court will ignore precedent if it helps their guy. Or maybe it'll just be a subverted election and passing the torch to one of his buddies.
Or maybe it'll be a regular, peaceful transition of power in 4 years. But I absolutely wouldn't bet on that.
The Supreme Court can't repeal amendments. Amendments can only be repealed through the amendment process, which requires the approval of 2/3 of House and Senate + 3/4 of State legislatures.
It is true that the Supreme Court has wide latitude in interpreting the Constitution. But I don't see the Court interpreting "No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice" in any other way than what the plain text says.
GP already said that it won’t happen via repealing the amendment. So pointing out how difficult that is/should be isn’t a strong point.
> But I don't see the Court interpreting "No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice" in any other way
Simple… He wont be elected.
He’ll be appointed. Or some other word. Or elections will be suspended due to some “national emergency” and so “we’ll just continue with who we have right now in the interim”. This is not uncommon when democracies fall to authoritarianism.
The Republicans, and their courts and judges, have already amply demonstrated how disingenuous they’re willing to be.
The 14th amendment disqualifies people who have “previously taken an oath to support the Constitution.”
The Republican position is that Trump swore an oath to “preserve, protect, and defend” the Constitution, but the word “support” was not in there so it doesn’t apply.
If it helps, I would expect a peaceful transition of power in less than three years - from the President to the Vice President upon his death, at which point yes, I fully expect two full terms of Vance provided he doesn’t screw up this initial one by getting caught up in the chaotic fracas of the inner cabinet. The American People made it clear that they demand the sacrifice of “others” for their personal wealth, and that’s the agenda for the remainder of the decade.
That being said, I can’t say how outside forces could shape things in unexpected ways. A proper WW3 with China and Russia could devastate enough of the world that countries with large immigrant populations end up the new superpowers, isolated from global conflicts and with the population for large projects, quickly. Or it might not. There’s so many potential branches when the status quo fails or is destroyed, that our only reliable sources of data come from those who lived it before us - lived through WW1 and WW2, who witnessed the Holocaust, who resisted fascism and totalitarianism from within and without.
I hope this is a crisis we manage to navigate largely peacefully, educating our masses about a better future together and form a new, achievable American Dream for them to chase. I want us to stop debating ideology in echo chambers, and instead put in the hard work of teaching, and guiding, and helping our fellow man. Pull the socialists, and the communists, and the modern economic theorists, and all the “fringe” groups out of their fortresses and into the streets, exchanging ideas with one another and formulating a real path forward that recognizes we will all have to compromise something to achieve our goal of a better, brighter, more sustainable future together.
I see it more like this: Trump leaves office in four years, but puts his weight behind Vance winning the 2028 election, and remains "the power behind the throne" like he was for the Republican Party for the last four years. He's going to expect Vance to take his orders. (Vance, and everyone else in the Republican Party.)
But Americans knew this because of Jan 6, so it's what we deserve I guess.