Why is your criteria for "on the path towards AGI" so absolutist? For it to be on the path towards AGI and not simply AGI it has to be deficient in some way. Why does the current failure modes tell you its on the wrong path? Yes, it has some interesting failure modes. The failure mode you mention is in fact very similar to human failure modes. We very much are prone to substituting the expected pattern when presented with a 99% match to a pattern previously seen. They also have a lot of inhuman failure modes as well. But so what, they aren't human. Their training regimes are very dissimilar to ours and so we should expect some alien failure modes owing to this. This doesn't strike me as good reason to think they're not on the path towards AGI.
Yes, LLMs aren't very good at reasoning and have weird failure modes. But why is this evidence that its on the wrong path, and not that it just needs more development that builds on prior successes?
Yes, LLMs aren't very good at reasoning and have weird failure modes. But why is this evidence that its on the wrong path, and not that it just needs more development that builds on prior successes?