The thread looks very different than it did when I wrote any of the above—at the time it was entirely composed of people casually asserting that this was most likely an assassination. I wrote this with the intent of shutting down that speculation by pointing out that we have no reason to believe that this person had enough information for it to be worth the risk of killing him.
Since I wrote this the tone of the thread shifted and others took up the torch to focus on the tragedy. That's wonderful, but someone had to take the first step to stem the ignorant assassination takes.