Ok, where I say 'alien', imagine I said 'extra-terrestrial'.
We know the probability of the universe evolving intelligent life from scratch is 1. We know nothing about the probability of the universe evolving intelligent life from scratch twice, and the Fermi paradox implies we're very unlikely to ever find out more.
We know the probability of the universe evolving intelligent life from scratch is 1. We know nothing about the probability of the universe evolving intelligent life from scratch twice, and the Fermi paradox implies we're very unlikely to ever find out more.