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> it seems likely that LLMs will obsolete precisely the skills that developers use to earn their income

I’m not particularly worried. I think it’s obvious that software engineering is definitely an “intelligence complete” problem. Any system that can do software engineering can solve any problem that requires intelligence. So, either my job is safe or I get to live through the fall of almost all white collar disciplines. There’s not a huge middle ground.

Although perhaps this is just the programmer stereotype of thinking that if someone can code, they can do anything.



> Any system that can do software engineering can solve any problem that requires intelligence. So, either my job is safe or I get to live through the fall of almost all white collar disciplines. There's not a huge middle ground.

How about the middle ground where a human using AI replaces you?

The human job is (maybe) safe, but your job?


Of course that is exactly the middle ground that I’m not certain is so big.

Developer productivity has gone up immensely in the last 50 years and the industry is larger than ever.


Um. How are you measuring that productivity?


Any meaningful metric.




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