> Current environment feels like the self-driving car hype cycle.
Is that really hype? I mean there companies or person(s) hyping it up, but there is also Waymo and Pingshan (Baidu) for example actually rolling it out. It's a lot less hype than AI coding.
> Anecdotally, AI agents feel stuck somewhere circa ~2021.
That's only part of the problem. It's also stuck or dead set on certain frameworks / libraries where it has training data.
> I keep thinking about The Tortoise and The Hare.
This implies that AI is currently "smart". The hare is "smarter" and just takes breaks i.e. it can actually get the job done. With the current "AI" there are still quirks where it can get stuck.
I'm thinking back to various promises self-driving would be widespread by 2016. These set a certain expectation for how our roads would look that I don't think has been realized a decade later (even as I've ridden in Waymos/FSD Teslas.)
if Elon Musk hadn't convinced the world in 2015 that self driving cars were right around the corner, that could work with just a few sensors and machine learning, maybe we'd have smart highways now. Slightly less fancy technology communicating hazards and such to cars from sensors on the road.
But no, we have Waymo, I guess, so that means Musk was right?
Is that really hype? I mean there companies or person(s) hyping it up, but there is also Waymo and Pingshan (Baidu) for example actually rolling it out. It's a lot less hype than AI coding.
> Anecdotally, AI agents feel stuck somewhere circa ~2021.
That's only part of the problem. It's also stuck or dead set on certain frameworks / libraries where it has training data.
> I keep thinking about The Tortoise and The Hare.
This implies that AI is currently "smart". The hare is "smarter" and just takes breaks i.e. it can actually get the job done. With the current "AI" there are still quirks where it can get stuck.