Inflation only happens if the US starts paying down the debt -- locking up the tariff money in interest payments. Otherwise, there's fundamentally no increase in the supply of money. I'm guessing there still will be inflation for consumers, especially seeing as most don't have the funds to invest in bonds.
I’m pretty sure the conventional wisdom suggests inflation happens when countries don’t pay down their debt.
Increased money supply isn’t the only cause of inflation (e.g., stagflation). Uncertainty about how to price goods—especially for goods in the middle of supply chains—could cause supply disruptions. It’s a self-inflicted version of the Covid supply disruptions.
