> Full sale was never likely. Some sort of 51%+ US JV (which afaik US investors already owns majority) maybe. But tarrifs obviously blew everything up. So now it's wierd scenario where Trump seems loath to ban, as in very much want US to own so nationalization of US operations doesn't seem unfathomable.
Trump was very popular on TikTok which is why he's in favor of keeping it or making it a US company so he can sell it to one of his sycophants. But it will be fully sold to a US company or banned. I don't think a JV is on the table.
> In response to shenanigans like TikTok US branch being nationalized, or CFIUS mass reversing PRC MNC portfolios, i.e. shares/purchases of US assets. They can be functionally "nationalized" in retaliation as in just have whatever is in country siezed, as in their presence in PRC. It means WFOE like Tesla losing their factory, whose workers will make domestic cars. Apple losing some R&D centres, all the capex infra build for foxconn can be messed with. Continue hampering capex/engineer export to India or whereever Apple wants to setup their none PRC operation to make process as painful as possible... or simply just kill Apple hardware 90% dead like US tried with Huawei/ZTE.
Right but those activities harm China too. If China isn't building iPhones in China because China nationalized those specific assets then Chinese workers sort of lose too. Similarly with the Tesla factory - if they keep it running they have to spend money to retool it to make BYD cars, then they have to sell those cars to someone - perhaps domestic consumers, but there's a lot of analysis that would be needed to be done to understand the exact effects.
I mostly took issue with your statement that Apple and Tesla would be nationalized, but I think you just meant to say their assets would be nationalized in China which is certainly an option that China has on the table.
But like all things there are actions the US can take that China would be very unhappy about, like, perhaps the US decides to build a military base in Taiwan. Now what? I'm not suggesting that's a good idea or on the table, but just saying both countries can get creative.
> Because it's been ~30 years, foreign MNCs who wanted to be in PRC are in PRC. In the short term domestic companies better positioned to soak up domestic demand, which has been independant trend in past few years.
Sure but now with US ventures like KFC probably being forced to shut down there should be room for European companies or companies from other countries to move in to China, which China will be just fine with right? I'm imagining since tariffs will be higher for Mercedes in the US they'll have to ship those cars to other countries and who better than China?
I think JV was on the table, pre tariff. Already talking about "licensing" tiktok algo, i.e. concession to PRC export controlling algo which made full sale non starter. So it's either ban, or majority US JV, or some other politics to get TikTok US under US control... because as you mentioned Trump seems very intent on keeping TikTok.
> both countries can get creative.
I did preface "next rung of stupid", as in stupid / creative rungs of trade war escalation ladder. We're already at 100%+ tariffs, I think it's fair to conclude we're entering unseen/stupid/creative territory, hence highlighting increasingly wild options, because at some point the just adding to tariff %s become farcical and need to move onto other intruments. I think we're in the... almost anything short of kinectic war can happen realm.
> China will be just fine with right
Yes, I think China would actually be fine with substituting imports from EU for US if only to more balance trade with EU and further peel them from US. Under more predictable (slow) transition this would/could happen. But TBH I don't think PRC/EU relations good enough even with Trump/EU breakup. I think we're in very accelerationist trade war scenario and most likely patriotic buying (which is already growing trend in last few years) is going to do a lot of the capturing. Chinese domestic brand influence are growing, Chinese increasingly fine with consuming higher value Chinese brands.
Trump was very popular on TikTok which is why he's in favor of keeping it or making it a US company so he can sell it to one of his sycophants. But it will be fully sold to a US company or banned. I don't think a JV is on the table.
> In response to shenanigans like TikTok US branch being nationalized, or CFIUS mass reversing PRC MNC portfolios, i.e. shares/purchases of US assets. They can be functionally "nationalized" in retaliation as in just have whatever is in country siezed, as in their presence in PRC. It means WFOE like Tesla losing their factory, whose workers will make domestic cars. Apple losing some R&D centres, all the capex infra build for foxconn can be messed with. Continue hampering capex/engineer export to India or whereever Apple wants to setup their none PRC operation to make process as painful as possible... or simply just kill Apple hardware 90% dead like US tried with Huawei/ZTE.
Right but those activities harm China too. If China isn't building iPhones in China because China nationalized those specific assets then Chinese workers sort of lose too. Similarly with the Tesla factory - if they keep it running they have to spend money to retool it to make BYD cars, then they have to sell those cars to someone - perhaps domestic consumers, but there's a lot of analysis that would be needed to be done to understand the exact effects.
I mostly took issue with your statement that Apple and Tesla would be nationalized, but I think you just meant to say their assets would be nationalized in China which is certainly an option that China has on the table.
But like all things there are actions the US can take that China would be very unhappy about, like, perhaps the US decides to build a military base in Taiwan. Now what? I'm not suggesting that's a good idea or on the table, but just saying both countries can get creative.
> Because it's been ~30 years, foreign MNCs who wanted to be in PRC are in PRC. In the short term domestic companies better positioned to soak up domestic demand, which has been independant trend in past few years.
Sure but now with US ventures like KFC probably being forced to shut down there should be room for European companies or companies from other countries to move in to China, which China will be just fine with right? I'm imagining since tariffs will be higher for Mercedes in the US they'll have to ship those cars to other countries and who better than China?