> It is silly to plan your retirement by looking at the situation right now. The economics of demographics will require grim changes.
This is doom talk. Of course it isn't. One thing is for sure: you are going to be responsible for your own retirement, because superannuation is only meant to drive up house prices and will collapse along with house prices ... "eventually". It may not be clear when exactly this will happen, but of course in Australia it will have to happen near 2054 (when Australia's population growth will go into reverse until at least 2084).
Perhaps easier to say in Australia: Australia seems to be doing better than many countries so perhaps you don't recognise the problem. Japan and Italy already have some ~$0 houses due to demographics. Children from New Zealand go overseas so demographics in NZ are worse than Australia. An article[1] this morning asked:
"Have you seriously considered moving to Australia in the last year?" 37% said YES (and 40% of those have 'looked into it').
This thread is started by nly in London who clearly hasn't retired yet:
My mortgage runs until I'm 70 and I, like most owners now, are entirely dependent on the housing casino game continuing. I have to refinance every 5 years, so if rates spike I'm also screwed.
Try to ignore the bullshit in both but do attend to the facts.
I'm over a decade away from retirement in New Zealand, but all the signals I see here are pointing towards the country taxation base not being able to afford retirees in the future. I haven't considered Australia yet since I assume Oz won't escape the demographic wall, and if there is a future problem then being a kiwi in Oz could become unpleasant.
The narrative a year ago was that we should invest a good proportion of retirement savings into the US stock market. Recent events indicate that might not be an effective long term strategy.
A rental property was the traditional investment vehicle goal for many New Zealanders - but I've been becoming more sceptical about that idea (even though I've seen the past success).
I've no idea what the solution is, but I'm certain that the strategy that worked for my parents won't work for me.
This is doom talk. Of course it isn't. One thing is for sure: you are going to be responsible for your own retirement, because superannuation is only meant to drive up house prices and will collapse along with house prices ... "eventually". It may not be clear when exactly this will happen, but of course in Australia it will have to happen near 2054 (when Australia's population growth will go into reverse until at least 2084).