I'm a grad student in English at the University of Arizona, and one thing I've observed is that many if not most of my students probably could learn much of what they learn in my class if they were extremely motivated. But most of us aren't, and class provides a pre-binding incentive structure to actually do something, where the default would probably be to do nothing, or hang out on FB or HN, which is close to nothing.
People have said that college in its conventional structure will remain essential right up to the point where middle-class families can't afford it any longer, and I have a feeling we're reaching that point. If you'd like to know more about why, check out Why Does College Cost So Much? Tl;dnr: Baumol's Cost Disease combined with student loans (http://www.amazon.com/Why-Does-College-Cost-Much/dp/01997445...).
Yes. The huge thing that almost all discussions about online education miss or deny is how much of teaching is motivating students. This is true to varying extents across the socioeconomic spectrum. I believe we as humans are hard wired to feel more strongly about people we are physically near on a regular basis. And nothing online can replace that. I am willing to be proven wrong by this, but I would take most seriously those opinions of people who have a lot (a decade or more) of experience teaching both online and in person.
I will look at your links when I have time. My initial reaction to what you wrote is to look to history. Before the 20th century college was expensive and rare. It's costs were very much out of the range of the middle class. Perhaps we will revert to the historical mean of university being for the rich, the bright, and the highly motivated.
I'm not sure that a middle class family has ever been able to afford sending their children to college. The vast boom of post-secondary education was created by the government with the enactment of the GI Bill and then continued via the manipulation of student loan interest rates.
I've written about this issue in more detail here: http://jseliger.wordpress.com/2011/09/04/from-the-department... and elsewhere.
People have said that college in its conventional structure will remain essential right up to the point where middle-class families can't afford it any longer, and I have a feeling we're reaching that point. If you'd like to know more about why, check out Why Does College Cost So Much? Tl;dnr: Baumol's Cost Disease combined with student loans (http://www.amazon.com/Why-Does-College-Cost-Much/dp/01997445...).