Over the last several decades we've seen an enormous transfer and consolidation of wealth from many people into a much smaller number of people. I think AI is going to dramatically accelerate this.

Fully open source, locally-hosted AI models are currently lagging far behind their commercial counterparts (in adoption if not capability). The web had a free-for-all period run by free software where it was able to gestate and gain traction before the walled garden era took over. Application development likewise had a long period of time where independent developers were able to build and distribute software (for free or otherwise) before the app store model took over; now, a significant portion of software development needs to be authorized by a third party before it can be distributed to potential users.

We did not get that same gestational period for AI. It went from theory to commercial product astonishingly fast. There are daily threads on HN now comparing how much everyone is "happy" to pay for their favorite commercial AI each month.

Developers are paying companies for the privilege of writing software.

The developers that, for whatever reason, refuse to get on board this train are going to be quickly outcompeted by the rest. Maybe they have been already.

It's likely that by about 2028 or thereabouts, we will see a landscape where just a few commercial entities will have captured the process of software development. If you want to make money making software, you will have to pay one of them to do it.