"For those around for the .com bust it does feel very similar."
I was around for the .com boom and it feels very different.
I experienced the boom as exuberant
without limits, the current situation is much more nuanced.
I was around as well and while tech financing is more sophisticated and mainstream, it feels like a similar cliff in regards to valuations - what are some of the nuances you see that separate these too time periods?
NVDA has a P/E of 55, which is definitely elevated, but nowhere near the 230+ that CSCO had at that time. TO say nothing of SUNW.
The big AI labs are definitely losing money, but they're doing it on the back of tens of (rapidly growing) billions of dollars in ARR, versus the dot com e-commerce and portal flameouts who would go public on (maybe) a million in revenue, at best.
We also have large AI teams at FAANG who are being funded directly by the fat margins of these companies, whose funding is not dependent on the whims of VC, PE or public markets.
I don't think Mark Zuckerberg salivating about data centers bigger than Manhattan is "nuanced." People gleefully predicting a 30% increase in national energy consumption strikes me as pretty darn exuberant.
So my question to the youngsters in the handbasket:
Do you feel pure and completely untroubled for being part of something big that is certainly not going away anymore? Do you look into your future and see bright skies without the slightest hint of a cloud?
I did as well, and then we had a few layoff rounds after having "positive" results when the VC money dried out, and those that stayed like myself, had several months of delayed salaries.
I was around for the .com boom and it feels very different. I experienced the boom as exuberant without limits, the current situation is much more nuanced.