> I'm always surprised by the number of people posting here that are dismissive of AI and the obvious unstoppable progress
Many of us have been through previous hype-cycles like the dot-com boom, and have learned to be skeptical. Some of that learning has been "reinforced" by layoffs in the ensuing bust (reinforcement learning). A few claims in your note like "it's only a matter of time before we have domain-specific ASI" are jarring - as you are "assuming the sale". LLMs are great as a tool for some usecases - nobody denies that.
The investment dollars are creating a class of people who are fed by those dollars, and have the incentive to push the agenda. The skeptics in contrast have no ax to grind.
Many of us have been through previous hype-cycles like the dot-com boom, and have learned to be skeptical. Some of that learning has been "reinforced" by layoffs in the ensuing bust (reinforcement learning). A few claims in your note like "it's only a matter of time before we have domain-specific ASI" are jarring - as you are "assuming the sale". LLMs are great as a tool for some usecases - nobody denies that.
The investment dollars are creating a class of people who are fed by those dollars, and have the incentive to push the agenda. The skeptics in contrast have no ax to grind.