> Not sure why you are basing your whole argument on euv.
I'm not. We were talking about "leapfrogging" and that naturally requires a technology that enables processes beyond EUV's capabilities.
In fact, many hours before you responded to my post, I responded to my own post with this: "My rough best guess is that they’ll be shipping euv-involved chips by 2028."
> There's nothing magical about it that prevents them from stealing/reinventing it.
If it was so easy they'd have done it already.
No, it's just insanely complicated to implement and the innovations required are not just the conceptual technology itself, but the high precision manufacturing prowess required to actually execute it.
And again, I think they're probably gonna have it before 2030. Hell, I could be convinced that they're going to start taping out EUV-based chips by the end of next year, although I would require a beer wager for that :)
But we were talking about leapfrogging, and that's "only" parity.
I guess my mistake was assuming they would ship it considering how rough it is financially, but they probably will for bragging rights.
> You could buy phones with SMIC 7nm chips as early as mid 2024, that means yields were good enough around mid 2023.
That was a halo product
> The impressive part is that this is catching up with ASML+TSMC combined.
Without euv, they are mining diminishing returns.
> There's no other company or government in the world that has achieved this vertical in the last few decades.
No, they had the advantage of copying and learning from decades of industry experience.
Don’t get me wrong, it’s impressive, but expecting Chinese leadership in this space by 2030 is foolish.
Of course, I’m never going to rule out anyone’s long term success, but there is no indication they’re in any position of leadership.