I think it's quite rare that the most important beliefs you should derive from t... | Hacker News

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		bjackman 4 months ago \| parent \| context \| favorite \| on: The Math Is Haunted I think it's quite rare that the most important beliefs you should derive from the news can be justified by a collection of absolute statements. I think you'd be better served by a tool for calculating chains of Bayesian reasoning. I've seen a tool that does this for numerical estimations.

lblume 4 months ago [–]

Correct. The only way to not subject oneself to (economic) irrationality is to model your beliefs about the world using probabilities and using Bayes to update in light of new evidence.

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