Re [1]: it’s much better than a layoff (for the business), in that you don’t pay any severance, have 0 exposure to wrongful termination lawsuits, and don’t get the “you just fired my friends/will you fire me next?” culture of insecurity.
Except nearly everyone seems to be in on the game at this point. My observation is that RTO mandates tank morale similarly to how layoffs do. I'd be interested to see studies on morale before and after RTO.
Not to mention the challenges it induces on retaining good talent.
I have an acquaintance who was forced to RTO (finance), and they’re both looking for a new remote job on company time and sabotaging [1] [2] internally (not illegally mind you) by doing as little as possible to keep the job until they bounce. Don’t blame them in the slightest.
You should look into the work of Nick Bloom, an Economics prof at Standford (active on various social media platforms) who has been researching remote work for quite a while: https://economics.stanford.edu/people/nicholas-bloom
While I can't recall a study on your precise question about morale, he did share a lot of findings strongly supporting hybrid and remote work, including lower attrition.
The BIG downside to the business is that you have little to no control over who you'll lose. I'd even go a step further and argue that you are more likely to lose the most competent employee since they have more options. I suspect, however, that the people enacting these policies are unable to see that dynamic and equate eagerness to come to an office with seriousness and commitment to the business.