i would like to see deeper analysis of similar forces playing out in other countries. A weakening dollar implies a strengthening world, but European policy is even more messed up than American, there is still widespread talent export e.g. european programmers working for american companies, indian asian and russian programmers immigrating to Europe or working remote abroad, and China seems to face financial crises just the same as ours in the US. The US tech sector for all its faults and incompetencies still seems impregnable. So how does all this factor into the weak dollar narrative?
The dollar is weakening because the US institutions are weakening. The EU might not be wealthy compared to the US, but at this moment in time it is more rational and future-proof than the volatile US business environment.
The main reason the US is a hub for well-paid programmers, is that there is a giant pool of VCs that subsidise growth for companies that can potentially find money all over the world thanks to the way the US still is a cultural hegemon to western liberal nations with strong English language skills. As long as a US based tech company leverages cultural hegemony (in a positive way) and deep VC pockets, they can succeed in Europe and the world.
The biggest tech company failing at using cultural hegemony in a positive way is Tesla. European consumers have largely abandoned Tesla thanks to E.M. He single handedly ruined the company's position of strength by thinking that US news and politics do not reach us. He did not understand the hegemonic aspect (or was too high to care).
addressing only paragraph 2: American VC funded startups mostly don’t hire overseas remote programmers for two reasons: 1) they don’t need to, they are overfunded and the culture/communication overhead tradeoff is not worth it; 2) they are california biased which has poor timezone overlap with overseas time zones. The companies that historically lean in on overseas workers are the bootstrappers, because they cannot afford market american salaries. The company I founded is one such company.
I'm not sure what you expect to happen? Tariffs can be a tool to promote local industry but when used like this they're more of a tax on Americans. I don't think other countries want to play the retaliatory game because it's lose lose. Instead they'll make deals where they can and otherwise get on with things. Trade is going to reorient by itself. That will take time but it's already happening.
In any case, it doesn't show the US is strong. Everyone already knew it has the strongest economy in the world. What it does show is that the US is less stable than partners believed. It's hard to see this benefiting the American economy in the long term. But you know, that might not be terrible, if American workers get more jobs and a larger share of the pie, then it might work out.
