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I've basically come to the same 2x to 5x conclusion as you. Problem is that "5x productivity" is really only a small portion of my actual job.

The hardest part of my job is actually understanding the problem space and making sure we're applying the correct solution. Actual coding is probably about 30% of my job.

That means, I'm only looking at something like 30% productivity gain by being 5x as effective at coding.





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