There's many jobs that can be eliminated with software, but haven't because managers don't want to hire SWEs without proven value. I don't think HN realizes how big that market is.
With AI, the managers will replace their employees with a bunch of code they don't understand, watch that code fail in 3 years, and have to hire SWEs to fix it.
I'd bet those jobs will outnumber the ones initially eliminated by having non-technical people deliver the first iteration.
Many of those jobs will be high-skill/impact because they are necessarily focused on fixing stuff AI can't understand.
I try using an LLM for coding now and then, and tried again today with giving a model dedicated to coding a rather straight forward prompt and task.
The names all looked right, the comments were descriptive, it has test cases demonstrating the code work. It looks like something I'd expect a skilled junior or a senior to write.
The thing is, the code didn't work right, and the reasons it didn't work were quite subtle. Nobody would have fixed it without knowing how to have done it in the first place, and it took me nearly as long to figure out why as if I'd just written it myself in the first place.
I could see it being useful to a junior who hasn't solved a particular problem before and wanted to get a starting point, but I can't imagine using it as-is.
There's many jobs that can be eliminated with software, but haven't because managers don't want to hire SWEs without proven value. I don't think HN realizes how big that market is.
With AI, the managers will replace their employees with a bunch of code they don't understand, watch that code fail in 3 years, and have to hire SWEs to fix it.
I'd bet those jobs will outnumber the ones initially eliminated by having non-technical people deliver the first iteration.
Many of those jobs will be high-skill/impact because they are necessarily focused on fixing stuff AI can't understand.