I think it means Xi's advisors don't believe in AGI, and Xi's advisors are drawn from the largest pool of AI talent in the world. And given the incentive, i.e if they're wrong and PRC lightcone collapse because US built AGI, they would if anything advise AGI is more imminent to hedge. But they're not. The general discourse around PRC AI doesn't focus on AGI. IMO simply one one thinks AGI is around corner, not enough to drive short term strategic planning.
I agree, but the ones who are drawn from that pool are not necessarily the ones who are least wrong. So far, though, I have to admit, Xi's technological predictions have been solidly on target.
