>Where are you getting this notion that tech exports are a major source of FX for Israel? Or that Israel would stop being a tech centre if America turned its back on it? (And again, major emerging gas exporter.)
From their own economic publications. Tech exports are 53% of their export output. Gas is a laughable non-issue. Like I said earlier, the middle east is full of it. It's not a significant source of leverage since every third country has it.
>UN sanctions are way less biting than American secondary sanctions alone.
You can always tunnel around sanctions, but it kills a lot of your open-market economy. You have to sell for a lower, discounted price. Acquisitions and mergers are effectively over. Sales shrink by a lot. Your largest companies move away to avoid contagion. I mean, have you ever read about the sanctions on Rhodesia & south Africa?
>They're...still around. And they never had a weapons sector like Israel's.
They're severely, terribly weakened. Even China won't sell them any modern airframes. That should tell you something.
>I get this is your hypothesis. It simply isn't sustained. This is before we get to the point that if a couple Western countries sanction Israel for shits and giggles, there is a lot of money to be made by someone defecting and acting 'neutrally'.
I have evidence of Western & non-western countries banding together to sanction consistent bad actors, despite being even more Western than Israel will ever be. Do you have any evidence of any country surviving sanctions without severe economic damage? Please share; my viewpoint has abundant proof. I'm just supposed to believe yours.
>Again, there seem to be folks who like to see patterns that sustain extreme outcomes that support a moral view of the world. You're having to go three levels deep for every turn because the most precedented outcome here is everyone forgets and moves on.
I don't have a dog in the fight. Both countries could die to the last man and I'd still go on my merry way, whistling. I'm simply projecting based on history, which is why I cite precedent that you refuse to admit.
Sure. Where are you getting that these are a critical source of FX?
> Gas is a laughable non-issue
To FX? Seriously?
> have you ever read about the sanctions on Rhodesia & south Africa?
Yes. Zimbabwe is still sanctioned. South Africa had preëxisting power-sharing negotiations.
> Even China won't sell them any modern airframes. That should tell you something
...that Beijing isn't drunk? Why do you think Washington got pissed off when Turkey bought Russian air defences and let them paint our fighter fleet?
> have evidence of Western & non-western countries banding together to sanction consistent bad actors
One, during a unipolar world. Someone else commented on this, but in a multipolar world, that is a luxury that simply doesn't emerge. (Even the bilateral world of the Cold War very rarely saw international sanctions regimes effected. That was just a nudge for someone to switch from one system of alliances to another.)
> Do you have any evidence of any country surviving sanctions without severe economic damage?
Yes [2]. In the short term, they cause damage. ("Severe" needs to be quantified, however--when regime change is targeted, it's only successful about a third of the time.) In the long term, they're less effective. Economies go into cockroach mode.
If you want a list, Russia, Iran, North Korea, Belarus, Burma and Venezuela are each heavily sanctioned and pretty much setting themselves up to permanently be so. (Pyongyang and Minsk having practically turned it into an art.)
> I'm simply projecting based on history, which is why I cite precedent
You haven't cited anything! Based on history, Israel is highly unlikely to get sanctioned by anyone, let alone America, and if it were, it's likely to be fine.
From their own economic publications. Tech exports are 53% of their export output. Gas is a laughable non-issue. Like I said earlier, the middle east is full of it. It's not a significant source of leverage since every third country has it.
>UN sanctions are way less biting than American secondary sanctions alone.
You can always tunnel around sanctions, but it kills a lot of your open-market economy. You have to sell for a lower, discounted price. Acquisitions and mergers are effectively over. Sales shrink by a lot. Your largest companies move away to avoid contagion. I mean, have you ever read about the sanctions on Rhodesia & south Africa?
>They're...still around. And they never had a weapons sector like Israel's.
They're severely, terribly weakened. Even China won't sell them any modern airframes. That should tell you something.
>I get this is your hypothesis. It simply isn't sustained. This is before we get to the point that if a couple Western countries sanction Israel for shits and giggles, there is a lot of money to be made by someone defecting and acting 'neutrally'.
I have evidence of Western & non-western countries banding together to sanction consistent bad actors, despite being even more Western than Israel will ever be. Do you have any evidence of any country surviving sanctions without severe economic damage? Please share; my viewpoint has abundant proof. I'm just supposed to believe yours.
>Again, there seem to be folks who like to see patterns that sustain extreme outcomes that support a moral view of the world. You're having to go three levels deep for every turn because the most precedented outcome here is everyone forgets and moves on.
I don't have a dog in the fight. Both countries could die to the last man and I'd still go on my merry way, whistling. I'm simply projecting based on history, which is why I cite precedent that you refuse to admit.