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But it has an unreasonable P/E ratio. The price is simply wrong.

It doesn't matter if it's the best firm ever and will get its dividends forever. You still calculate reasonably.

People say this kind of thing about Tesla as well, and Tesla has been stuck as a slightly-smaller-than-Mercedes-Benz sized firm for years and will stay like that forever, or even shrink relative to MB.

NVIDIA has a much more reasonable P/E ratio, even though it is of course very high.



Given that the market has moved so strongly away from dividends in favour of stock buybacks and other reinvestment (i.e. the successful companies are now much more often "growth" companies rather than "value" companies), and given e.g. Buffett's wisdom about total return, I don't know that traditional rules of thumb about P/E make sense any more.


In the end the value is just discounted dividends or there's an arbitrage opportunity under the risk neutral measure.

This isn't a matter of rules of thumb. This is what's required to have prices that do not create an arbitrage opportunity.




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