I believe the point is if something is UB, like NULL pointer dereference, then the compiler can assume it can't happen and eliminate some other code paths based on that. And that, in turn, could be exploitable.
Yes, that part was clear. The certainty of a vulnerability is worse than the possibility of a vulnerability, and most UB does not in fact produce vulnerabilities.
Most UB results in miscompilation of intended code by definition. Whether or not they produce vulnerabilities is really hard to say given the difficulty in finding them and that you’d have to read the machine code carefully to spot the issue and in c/c++ that’s basically anywhere in the codebase.
You stated explicitly it isn’t but the compiler optimizing away null pointer checks or otherwise exploiting accidental UB literally is a thing that’s come up several times for known security vulnerabilities. It’s probability of incidence is less than just crashing in your experience but that doesn’t necessarily mean it’s not exploitable either - could just mean it takes a more targeted attack to exploit and thus your Baysian prior for exploitability is incorrectly trained.
But not in reality. For example a signed overflow is most likely (but not always) compiled in a way that wraps, which is expected. A null pointer dereference is most likely (but not always) compiled in a way that segfaults, which is expected. A slightly less usual thing is that a loop is turned into an infinite one or an overflow check is elided. An extremely unusual thing and unexpected is that signed overflow directly causes your x64 program to crash. A thing that never happens is that your demons fly out of your nose.
You can say "that's not expected because by definition you can't expect anything from undefined behaviour" but then you're merely playing a semantic game. You're also wrong, because I do expect that. You're also wrong, because undefined behaviour is still defined to not shoot demons out of your nose - that is a common misconception.
Undefined behaviour means the language specification makes no promises, but there are still other layers involved, which can make relevant promises. For example, my computer manufacturer promised not to put demon-nose hardware in my computer, therefore the compiler simply can't do that. And the x64 architecture does not trap on overflow, and while a compiler could add overflow traps, compiler writers are lazy like the rest of us and usually don't. And Linux forbids mapping the zero page.
