> How can the predictive market bros quantifiably turn this into a bet?
Put options trading.[^1]
> At what point can we verifiably say we heard a loud pop?
Definitely after the fact. Maybe months, maybe years. I have personally been following the parallels with the dot-com bubble burst, but it's impossible to time the market. Financial data is always too slow when you want it fast and too fast when you need to watch it carefully.
Put options trading.[^1]
> At what point can we verifiably say we heard a loud pop?
Definitely after the fact. Maybe months, maybe years. I have personally been following the parallels with the dot-com bubble burst, but it's impossible to time the market. Financial data is always too slow when you want it fast and too fast when you need to watch it carefully.
[^1] https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/06/sellingoptions.a...