If he had connections in Hong Kong, why supply the weak excuse "oh, it's because of its history of dissidence and freedom of speech?"
He would have been much more convincing saying "yeah, I know that China doesn't have the greatest record on privacy, but I have several friends in Hong Kong that I hope will support my asylum case." Boom. Totally makes sense, and doesn't sound like a rehearsed rationalization that could have been scripted by the PRC.
It's the age of airplanes, dude. They aren't sending out the stagecoaches with deputies. Physical distance doesn't really matter if someone with access to the resources the US government has is out to get you. I think this guy is well aware of that (as you should be, too).
To play devils advocate, if I had connections in Hong Kong and was attempting to gain footing there, I would not want to volunteer information regarding my connections where it would be widely published in the media.
I don't think that's the case here, however we really don't have any concrete evidence either way.
As far as law enforcement goes, you're spot on, physical distance is the least of anyone's concerns. The first consideration for law enforcement would probably be "How willingly will this jurisdiction work with us?"
All I'm saying is that you don't have all the information, so why try to discredit him so early? Wait until you have the facts before you condemn someone.
I have no power to discredit him. I'm not famous, nor any access to a venue to do so.
This is totally personal speculation based on how I would have behaved if I were in his position as a whistleblower that was a strong human rights privacy advocate. To me, his actions are incongruous with his statements. If he's not being manipulated by the Chinese, the other option is that he is just naive or careless and picked Hong Kong without considering what kind of political implications it would have, and was either unaware of its history in human rights and privacy, or chose to ignore it.
I'm fully willing to believe my opinion will change if more facts come in; just as it it stands now, I remain skeptical.
I don't think it's a matter of discrediting or condemning anyone. He's simply providing an alternate perspective on what might be going on, whether it is true or not is anyone's guess.
I personally don't think he has any PRC ties, however it does foster an interesting discussion, and isn't that what HN is all about?
