The optimal (most efficient, safest) way to get computer-controlled cars to work;
- All drivable areas mapped (Not just the roads - EVERYTHING, since you might want to go off-road. What if; landslide, earthquake, someone digs a hole somewhere, leaves a brick on the street, etc.)
- Knows where everyone is (going) at all times (privacy issue)
- Has everyone on the same system (not happening within 12 years)
Since I don't see these three happen, they have to be dealt with somehow. The bracketed issues are fully remedied only by the solutions written before them. Anything less will be fighting the symptoms, not the disease, and be a never-ending battle.
There are so many obstacles to be overcome, so much politics to be done, so many technical challenges, so much bureaucracy ... 12 years really isn't that long.
The actual bar for deploying self driving cars is that they are safer than some (large?) portion of humans that we already allow to drive. We don't have to do it the safest way or the most efficient way.
I agree that ubiquity is unlikely, but because of cost.
(A high end Mercedes can already keep itself in a lane, slow down the cruise for a slower vehicle and will override the driver trying to crash into things. These systems are environmental, they don't depend on detailed maps. http://www.mbusa.com/mercedes/benz/safety
And they are one of several, not way out in front.)
Remember that the iPhone was released in 2007.. how much has the smartphone market changed since then. Billion dollar companies like Instagram and Snapchat have sprung up utilising that platform in only 6 years.
I see what you're saying but a lot can happen in 12 years.
To think about it another way, the time between the first dotcom crash and now is only 13-14 years.
The optimal (most efficient, safest) way to get computer-controlled cars to work;
- All drivable areas mapped (Not just the roads - EVERYTHING, since you might want to go off-road. What if; landslide, earthquake, someone digs a hole somewhere, leaves a brick on the street, etc.)
- Knows where everyone is (going) at all times (privacy issue)
- Has everyone on the same system (not happening within 12 years)
Since I don't see these three happen, they have to be dealt with somehow. The bracketed issues are fully remedied only by the solutions written before them. Anything less will be fighting the symptoms, not the disease, and be a never-ending battle.
There are so many obstacles to be overcome, so much politics to be done, so many technical challenges, so much bureaucracy ... 12 years really isn't that long.