That's the most thorough analysis I've seen yet.

Thanks. If anyone spots an error or something missed out please do say. Calling things "confused" might be an understatement :D

There's some speculation[1] at metafilter that the prices and stock percentages involved might make TPB a majority stakeholder in GGF.

[1] http://www.metafilter.com/82889/Pirate-AB#2629173

Indeed. You might notice too that I skipped over the "PB owning GGF" part in the conspiracies section very briefly. To muddy the waters even more it emerged trading was stopped on GGF shares at one point after suspicions of insider trading.

Honestly? I cant put an opinion to that angle yet: probably I'll either update or re-blog once things start to clear up. It's an important thread for certain (maybe the most important?) but one too many for the moment :P

Lots of thanks for the link, more material to wade through :)

The whois entry for thepiratebay.org points to it being controlled by Fredrik Neij who is apparently this person: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fredrik_Neij

Perhaps he's the 'he'.

Possible. But highly doubtful.

As further background,.. Neij is one of the 4 recently on trial. The trial itself relates to the 2006 raid - it was after this that the site was signed over to the holding company.

Whilst any of the 4 put on trial could, theoretically, be the "mysterious" owner I am not convinced. The intention in signing over the site was to take the heat off of these individuals - knowing their motivations and their MO I would imagine it is someone very unlikely.

Personally I think the sale will fall though, and TPB will shut down.

Or more accurately, they will say they will shut down, then there will be a big tumult, and someone else will take it over.

When people want to sell something like that, it's because they are tired (or bored). And they just don't want to do it anymore.

And I don't think the sale will go though because the plan makes no sense.

So that leaves shutting down.

But because it's their "baby", they don't really want to kill it - they want someone to take it over. So they will say they are shutting down, wait for the tumult, and someone to offer to take it over.

Time will tell if I am right, but I have seen this pattern many many times.

"Follow the money" is Deep Throat's famous line in All the President's Men:

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0074119/quotes

Great article, by the way.

Good spot :) That's one of my fav films. And thanks.

You essentially skipped over the fine, the jail time and other considerations from the case. i'd answer those if you want to make it a better analysis.

I did mention that it was probably a strong reason for the to extract themselves from the site. But do note the court case refers to 2006. Since then non of the 4 defendants have been in a position where you could take legal action.