But that's hard to do, considering our minds are natural born lawyers. There is a fine line between confidence and believing BS, one that I can't always find.
Well, going to the gym or learning a new programming language are also hard. Most things that matter in the long run are.
Being honest with yourself is not the same S confidence building. BSing yourself is saying 'my new app will sell a million units'. Being honest with yourself is saying 'if I do x and y, then I can see a market size for my app of a million units. There is risk that this won't happen becaue of z, but I am going to proceed'. If it then fails, the person prone to lying to themsleves will blame everything and anyone else. The person who is honest with themselves will look at the hard lessons and take them on board, and benefit from the experience.