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> The stock market has historically never dropped in value over a 15 year period.

Feel free to clarify this, because I don't agree.

The records of the FT30 index only go back to 1935[0] - which is not nearly long enough to make reliable predictions about the next 40 years - but still, it dropped in value in the following 15-year periods (before taking into account time value of money):

  1936-1951
  1959-1974
  1994-2009
  1995-2010 (records end)
The 20-year periods 1954-1974 and 1989-2009 also.

Still not convinced? The fact that this is a surviving index makes it biased - indices which show a loss of value are less likely to be retained.

[0]http://www.ft.com/ft30




I believe the American Stock Market has never dropped in value over 15 years. Other countries serve as a good counter-example however.

Your 2nd point is also a solid counter-argument that I won't belabor much further.




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