The single oddest thing about these protests is to outsiders the whole thing seems utterly impenetrable. It seems really hard to tell who here could be said to be supporting or subverting democracy. Who are the puppets? Who is making the decisions?
Obviously the brutality involved is extreme, but the protesters causes don't exactly make them sound like a bunch of angels either. It seems like the enemy of my enemy is my friend, until they're in power, when they become my enemy again on a massive scale.
There have been numerous discussions of this on HN a few weeks ago. Basically, nobody is exactly a champion of freedom here, but some are way more evil than others:
The current government is heavily influenced by Russia. It is utterly corrupt and is trying to help Russia exert further influence over Ukraine the land and the people. There is no question in my mind that it should be let go. Given Yanukovych's track record, he should never have been elected or allowed to become president and there is very clear evidence that he is abusing his power for personal gain.
Now, the protesters are really two different people: there is the politicians who are trying to gain power and then there are the common people who are simply fed up with the corruption. IMO, at least some of the political figures involved in the opposition might be only slightly less corrupt than the current government. I have no idea what they'd really be like if they came into power but I have never seen an honest politician in Ukraine.
The people can be faulted, once again IMO, only for having a lack of vision. They want Yanukovych gone, but they don't know what real democracy feels like so they are not going to get much done beyond that. I don't believe them to cause the violence, so much as react to it.
Edit: My friend's opinion is that Yanukovych simply cannot give up the power. For him it's quite literally a matter of life and death; as in, if he no longer has the protection afforded to him by being the president, he, his family, and anyone who was affiliated with him will be in danger of coming to physical harm.
Sure. Yanukovych is playing for his own survival. It is important to remember that he is NOT doing anything for the people unless it helps him personally. If the Ukrainian people benefit, it's a side effect, but not a goal.
He is a puppet in that Putin has lots of influence on him personally and on the Ukrainian economy in general, but I suppose you could say that he has his own agenda: to steal as much money as possible as quickly as possible and not get killed in the process.
You sure know a lot about what happens inside Putin's or Yanukovich's head.. Are you their private psychologist, do you have crystall ball or you're just making this stuff up to push your agenda?
It's amazing what some understanding of history can do for you. In particular, it can confer the ability to make surprisingly accurate surmises regarding the behavior of public figures.
Does anyone have insight into russia's possible role in all this? It does seem to give them a very handy excuse to consolidate their cherished buffer zone.
EDIT: by "them" I'm referring to the russian establishment, not the people in general.
EDIT2: I suspected this post was a bad idea. I really don't mean to accuse a whole nation of maliciousness. I just want a little guidance in the geopolitical wilderness of mirrors. This probably isn't the time to be asking.
I don't have an answer, but I do think this is a legitimate question to ask. My hunch is that these are just freak accidents and have nothing to do with the bigger picture. Somebody got pushed far enough and violence ensued. However, IMO the whole thing started because of Russian influence and if Yanukovych didn't have the (at least mental) support of the Russian government he would probably have backed down by now.
On the national scale in Ukraine, I think you are right. But on the scale of individuals, there really are a bunch of vicious people who hate Russia, hate the EU, hate America and also hate the fatcats of Ukraine like Yanukovich. But they love violence. When people like that are allowed to mass together, violence is inevitable. The demonstrations in November and December were a completely different crowd of people and included a lot more ordinary people.
I don't know if Russia is responsible for anything that's happened so far. This fight is largely between ethnic Ukrainians and ethnic Russians living in Ukraine. If this escalates too far, Russia will intervene and probably on behalf of Yanukovych.
My understanding is that ukraine was veering towards closer alliance with europe before all this started. That makes the sudden emergence of violent uprising, possibly necessitating american-style "intervention" on the part of the russian government rather convenient. If that does come to pass, I will be extremely suspicious.
Of course this is just ill-advised idle speculation.
I think it's simpler than that. Russia doesn't really operate using these types of interventions. It's a lot easier to just call the Ukrainian president and say "do as I say or I will destroy you". But you are right about Ukraine trying to open more relationships up with the EU and Russia not liking that. This is exactly how this whole thing started.
The funny thing is that RUSSIA is veering towards closer alliance with Europe, and continues to do so. An awful lot of the changes that Putin has brought to Russia are exactly the kind of things that the EU demands of its member countries. But the other former Soviet republics are all lagging behind.
This makes sense. Russia seeks to continue and expand control over at least some ex-USSR countries of which Ukraine is the second largest (Russia being the largest). Putin wants to further Russia's trade with the EU because it's profitable, but he does not want Ukraine, Belarus, etc. to do the same independently. From his point of view it's best if Russia trades with the EU, while Ukraine trades with Russia. That way Moscow controls exactly what Ukraine can and cannot get/do.
Yanukovych's side doesn't claim to represent ethnic Russians and/or fight against Ukrainians. They indiscriminately fight any opposition.
None of the protesters' demands have anything to do with ethnic Russians, who by the way join the protests too.
So no, this conflict isn't between ethnicities.
But everyone in eastern Europe knows that the large groups of ethnic Russians around act as puppets of Mother Russia. The classic example of that was the riots in Estonia.
The problem is it means any actual protesting by Russians over legitimate grievances is likely to be viewed suspiciously.
If by Russia, you mean Putin, then Putin is basically sponsoring Yanukovich. From my knowledge Russia and Ukraine had a special multi dollar transaction, after which the Ukraine has decided not to pursue EU membership.
The primary reason is not 15 billions, but trade preferences from Russia. It's 2004 all over again, and Ukraine wants to sit on two chairs - it wants to develop closer ties with the West and doesn't want to lose preferences from Moscow.
I'm not trying to call into question your level of the awareness of this situation but what exactly do you believe a "special multi dollar transaction is"?
Yanukovich sat down with the Euro leaders and couldn't come to an equitable agreement that would help Ukraine in any way. Russia on the other hand offered a $15 billion bailout to help out the Ukrainian economy and a guaranteed low price for natural gas. The elected leader of Ukraine probably thought cooperating with Russia might be a better deal for Ukraine than Euro's offer of asking something for the promise of nothing.
I'd say this post doesn't make much sense. Pro-western ukrainains riot against Yanukovich, who they think took away their european dream and you try to blame the Russians.
This is really crossing a mental line for me. I have a friend who lives in Kyiv who is thankfully OK, but it's definitely precarious. I am really hoping this situation deescalates quickly and a resolution is found.
I'm following this on behalf of http://grasswire.com - and a lot has changed since this article was written. I'll update this comment as frequently as possible.
* Update 18: More protesters entering EuroMaidan camp right now, many carrying tires. They've burned tires during these clashes to create a smokescreen.
* Update 17: Ukraine to restrict traffic to Kyiv starting at midnight tonight
* Update 16: Armored vehicles are entering the square. One has been set on fire by protestors.
* Update 15: An emergency meeting has been called between Yanykovytch and opposition leaders.
* Update 13: Police reinforcements have arrived, barricade has been torn down. Protestors using laser pointers to blind police. Rubber bullets being fired constantly.
* Update 12: Police storming with water cannons and rubber bullets
When riot forces block all surrounding streets it means that they intend to slowly close in and arrest everybody. No food or water goes into the area. People cannot leave until and unless the police are ready to arrest them.
On the Spilno TV feed (update 7) I can hear people talking in both Ukrainian and in Russian. Maybe this is not really about a split between western Ukrainians and ethnic Russians.
acting Interior Minister Vitaliy Zakharchenko issued a public warning at 4 p.m. to protesters to clear the streets within two hours: “If by 6 p.m. the lawlessness doesn't cease, we shall be forced to used all legal means to bring order.”
So, protesting against a government that remains in place clearly against The People's will is "lawlessness", but killing and hurting/maiming protesters to shut them the fuck up is Lawfulness (and Good, naturally)?
In summary: The people do not want the current government to be in power, and the current government brutalizes them into submission, aaaand.. Yay democracy, Yay governments, Yay rulers?
Here's a set of simple rules to follow:
1) Lawful = Good
2) Unlawful = Bad
3) Anything your rulers do = Lawful
4) Anything you do to oppose your rulers = Unlawful
From what I can see, most of the violence seems to be perpetrated by the protesters against the police. No matter how bad the government is, violence isn't the way to change anything (especially not when you are dealing with Putin).
Not quite. I was more thinking along the lines of a velvet revolution. Violence doesn't necessarily work for changing governments. Look at Syria and Egypt.
Obviously the brutality involved is extreme, but the protesters causes don't exactly make them sound like a bunch of angels either. It seems like the enemy of my enemy is my friend, until they're in power, when they become my enemy again on a massive scale.