It's thriving because it just works. Works when you're offline. Works if you try to save conflicting copies of a file. Works if you accidentally delete a file. Works if you need to retrieve an old version of a file. Works if your internet connection is spotty.
Rather than punting on the hard issues and creating another WebDAV-like service, they actually created something that just works.
I think this was pretty shallow analysis by the author, but to his very first point - I do think it's the elephant in the room for a lot of startups. One of the most consistent pieces of advice/feedback I've heard from serial entrepreneurs and VCs is to stay razor focus.
Multi-platform is key. Shared folders can be used to collaborate not just with people, but with Linux servers too. I let users send files to my site by sharing a folder with it. I predict a lot of services will do that in the future. It's an easy way to give people offline functionality.
It might work "awesomely" one some platforms, but the Nautilus integration is pretty buggy - it was a nightmare to try to get it working on my Ubunutu 09.04. I ended up having to just use the command line utility a user wrote.
Seriously. I left a comment on the host blog observing that points 2, 3, and 4 are basically the same, and can be summarized as: it's insanely easy to use. I set up Dropbox in about 20 seconds, and it did exactly what it said it would. Compared to every other synchronization tool I've ever used, Dropbox wins not by meters, but by miles.
Dropbox works fantastically well with Keepass, just save the .kdb file in your Dropbox folder. Open up Keepass on another system and there are all your password once you wenter the master password.
I'm probably preaching to the converted, I'm sure most people who frequent ycombinator know about that but I still thinks it's once of the best uses for it so far along with backing up critical files.
It's also one of the only online services where I actually am strongly considering subscribing and paying money to upgrade once I approach the 2GB limit.
And it couldn't have been easy. I can think of a dozen features I'd like to see added, but most of them would only appeal to all small subset of users and ALL of them would make the service more complicated.
It must be noted that Dropbox solves a problem that Microsoft has been trying to solve for decades. Ever since the MS DOS LAN Manager, MSFT has been working on a file synchronization and sharing solution (and they are only beginning to tackle the synchronization part).
SMB, Microsoft Groove, SharePoint, SkyDrive (aka LiveDrive), LiveMesh, Windows LiveSync (aka Folder Share), SyncToy, and even Briefcase, are different attempts at solving the same problem.
Still, my Mac and my Windows 7 PC sitting on the same desk won't talk to each other and Dropbox is the only thing that works.
Article kind of seems like linkbait - the author seems to ask the question "What makes an online service successful?" but of course doesn't provide any specific answers or really anything specific about Dropbox at all.
Surprise surprise, the same things that make an offline service successful are what make an online service successful too.
Well, one thing is that it stands out in my mind as best of class. So if someone asked me about file syncing, they come to mind. Whenever people want to share files, I tell them about dropbox.
Agreed about the "it just comes to mind" aspect of the site.
I think it really helps that they picked such a great name for the service. It's easy to remember and tell others, and the name describes exactly what it does. I'm sure this has been a factor in the speed at which they're signing on new users.
Dropbox is one of the best examples of great product naming that I can think of.
Just want to note they give users the incentive of extra space when a friend joins and installs the application. They also have a nice tracking tool to 'spy' on which people showed interest and how far in the registration-process they got.
How many of the 2 million users are paying customers? Is dropbox losing money for now because of the 2GB it gives out for free? I believe dropbox will make money but right now it seems that it is still burning money.
2gb of storage costs $.24 a month on S3, and you figure they only average about half full. Call it an even $.50 with data transfer costs, and you've got just one paying customer (at $9.99/month) subsidizing ~15 free users. A 1-in-15 conversion rate seems like a modest goal. They may not be losing any money at all.
I use dropbox and am happy with it. I save files to it every day. I share files using it about once a fortnight and I grab files via the web app about once in 2-3 months.
I'm at 23.1% of 2.5 GB.
I don't think I will upgrade soon unless I start to use two machines regularly.
I would guess less per average free user (maybe as low as $2 per year). I would guess that 1/15 conversion is also a high estimate. But I might convert in a few years time. I imagine that it'll take another year or two before they really know what conversion rates look like.
Dropbox also has a bit of secret sauce. They have some technology that can pick up which bits changed in a file and only sync those (which makes their service way faster than others)
librsync (http://sourceforge.net/projects/librsync/) does this. It's LGPL'd so I wouldn't be surprised if they were using it. Certainly a lot simpler than reinventing the wheel.
I think it is thriving because is simple and transparent. Users dont have to learn how to use a new application if they don't need the advanced features. They just drop files into folders like they always have.
It was perfect solution for integrating version control for my diverse team of designers(macs), developers(linux) and everyone else(windows).
They made something you want to tell your friends about. I noticed people started using it (independently from me) at my engineering college last year and by now shared Dropbox folders are widely used on group projects.
Love 'em or hate 'em, I initially heard about Dropbox on Techcrunch.com. I immediately signed up for the free 2Gb account (as I usually sign up for almost anything free).
I think it was a couple of weeks later before I ever got around to installing it on a second PC and actually using the sync functionality across boxes, and probably a day or so after that their usability and overall perfection convinced me to buy.
Rather than punting on the hard issues and creating another WebDAV-like service, they actually created something that just works.