Glad he mentions the macro collapse possibility (which is out of his hands, and therefore irrelevant to his career except as a binary "shall I stay in this business" decision). I think any talk of bubble in tech should mention the direction of equities as an asset class, and particularly the very cheap capital available at the moment.
So when you are taking a directional bet on "the tech bubble" (including deciding to make a career as a developer or startup founder) you are really taking a position on China's economy, and global interest rates for the duration of the bet.
Hypothetical question: how many of today's startups would make it through their first five years if interest rates were in their mid-70s levels? What happened to other asset classes during the high interest rate days and what would a savvy investor have done at the time?
It's becoming a very real consideration for many countries; see the fall in AUDUSD since 2013. In 2011, the majority of online e-commerce in Australia was cross-border, because the exchange rate was so good [1] and wholesale prices in Australia could be as high as 50% higher than the rest of the world. If you're a domestic online retailer today, raising capital abroad and competing against foreign retailers (say, you're The Iconic, financed in EUR and selling in AUD, competing against ASOS selling in GBP and shipping in USD), life just got a hell of a lot better.
[1] can't find the link now, but the Commonwealth Bank of Australia crunched the numbers on over a million customers' accounts and published a fantastic report showing where the money went. In some sectors, over 90% of revenue came from abroad!
So when you are taking a directional bet on "the tech bubble" (including deciding to make a career as a developer or startup founder) you are really taking a position on China's economy, and global interest rates for the duration of the bet.
Hypothetical question: how many of today's startups would make it through their first five years if interest rates were in their mid-70s levels? What happened to other asset classes during the high interest rate days and what would a savvy investor have done at the time?
It's becoming a very real consideration for many countries; see the fall in AUDUSD since 2013. In 2011, the majority of online e-commerce in Australia was cross-border, because the exchange rate was so good [1] and wholesale prices in Australia could be as high as 50% higher than the rest of the world. If you're a domestic online retailer today, raising capital abroad and competing against foreign retailers (say, you're The Iconic, financed in EUR and selling in AUD, competing against ASOS selling in GBP and shipping in USD), life just got a hell of a lot better.
[1] can't find the link now, but the Commonwealth Bank of Australia crunched the numbers on over a million customers' accounts and published a fantastic report showing where the money went. In some sectors, over 90% of revenue came from abroad!