If you have an expectation, you have a probability. Not a numeric one, but a probability nonetheless.
Nobody has ever landed a rocket before. But we don't expect the rocket to turn into an alarm clock or suddenly develop antigravity. In fact, we have quite reasonable expectations on what behaviors the rocket will exhibit. We might, for instance, expect the rocket to crash more than we expect it to land. What else does that say rather than p(crash) > p(land)?
(Of course, this may well come down to "probability as ratio" vs. "probability as anticipation", which is probably a matter of preference.)
Nobody has ever landed a rocket before. But we don't expect the rocket to turn into an alarm clock or suddenly develop antigravity. In fact, we have quite reasonable expectations on what behaviors the rocket will exhibit. We might, for instance, expect the rocket to crash more than we expect it to land. What else does that say rather than p(crash) > p(land)?
(Of course, this may well come down to "probability as ratio" vs. "probability as anticipation", which is probably a matter of preference.)