>Doing well on the fizzbuzz problems was not very correlated.
If you mean "correlation" to only refer to the population that passed fizzbuzz, then it is to be expected that the final positive/accepted interview evaluations don't correlate. Fizzbuzz was never statistically designed for that. It was designed for early rejection and not for predicting ultimate success at the end of a multi-step interview cycle.
>By dropoff I mean people who left during a step, and never logged back into our site.
And the population mentioned in this sentence is what I first interpreted to be included in your "non-correlation". It looks like you don't include this population. The quitters that never logged back in were not further tested by you for later stage evaluations. That's where my confusion was and now it's resolved.
Agreed, it would be more useful to know the false negative rate (i.e. those incorrectly 'rejected' by fizzbuzz). The small / negative correlation could just be caused by a high number of false positives.
If you mean "correlation" to only refer to the population that passed fizzbuzz, then it is to be expected that the final positive/accepted interview evaluations don't correlate. Fizzbuzz was never statistically designed for that. It was designed for early rejection and not for predicting ultimate success at the end of a multi-step interview cycle.
>By dropoff I mean people who left during a step, and never logged back into our site.
And the population mentioned in this sentence is what I first interpreted to be included in your "non-correlation". It looks like you don't include this population. The quitters that never logged back in were not further tested by you for later stage evaluations. That's where my confusion was and now it's resolved.