Essentially, these two large borrowers missing bond payment is a signal of worst to come.
It's not a question of if or when such crash will come but who will go down first and the big question: Can Chinese leadership be able to survive this time around? Deng Xiaopeng's remedy to deteriorating grip on the country was market capitalism, but now that it has proven to be largely a failure with half a billion Chinese living in poverty or barely what is considered Standard living in the west, with no political free will and expression protected, how long can the people bare it?
There are already signs of simmering tensions between the state and people. Much like leading up to the Tianmen Square incident 40 years ago in 1989, we are seeing similar themes - the rise of student activists with little to nothing to lose, a deteriorating economy now on the verge of misnky effect, now with a KGB puppet applying pressure via trade sanctions....
I estimate some major event taking place after the North Korea-America summit, the outcomes of that meeting will determine what chips China will use to get America off it's back.....
yup, you guessed right, another nuclear test this year along with ICBM/SLBM tests, launching skirmishes in NLL zone....
OR
another tianmen square unfortunately...as Chinese leadership realizes America's not about to go easy, it will have no choice but to kill it's own citizens who will riot when they los their jobs and savings.
The domino chips are all set in place, and it's just waiting for that final push.
"now that it has proven to be largely a failure with half a billion Chinese living in poverty"
What?
China has risen to superpower status, and become one of the biggest economies in the world in the space of a generation.
Are they as rich as the US per capita? No, but they're on the right trajectory, and getting there quicker than most other nations did.
Don't forget nearly all these city dwellers are first generation, if they don't remember living in a wood hut, without electricity, running water or toilet, their parents do.
Many countries have been able to rapidly modernize by copying Europe and the United States. But each country hit a wall after they were out of things to copy, and their economies slowed down. Both Japan and South Korea underwent rapid economic double digit annual growth, which tapered off as their economies matured.
China will probably hit a slowdown sooner than it should and before Japan or South Korea did because of its corrupt, authoritarian government
what is dark matter? is it the opposite of matter? how can it be called matter when it doesn't exist?
or are these objects from higher dimensions as Michio Kaku postulates? that galaxies are essentially in a bubble of dark matter preventing it from hurling in every direction.
as well as the presence of dark matter in orbits, could it not be the space-time curvature from the mass itself but from the encapsulating dark matter around it?
I no very little of this subject so I can only ponder and fantasize.
Dark matter is a hypothetical form of matter that is thought
to account for approximately 85% of the matter in the universe,
and about a quarter of its total energy density.
(...)
Its presence is implied in a variety of astrophysical
observations, including gravitational effects that
cannot be explained unless more matter is present
than can be seen.
Also, since it will inevitably come up as it always does in threads about dark matter or dark energy , here is an article[1] and related[2] HN thread arguing the theoretical justifications behind the existence of dark matter, what is known or can be inferred about its properties and why chances are no one missed whatever simple solution you can think of, like "maybe it's just normal matter but they can't see it because it's far away" or "maybe it's just black holes" and why it's also not entirely hubris or ignorance on the part of the scientific community.
The article you link there does not mention the SISSA discovery of 2016 [1]. In particular in mini-spiral galaxies there seems to be an unexpected, and inexplicable, interaction between dark and visible matter. This falsifies the primary prediction put forth in that medium article. And in general this issue is one that poses a critical problem for dark matter largely because it cannot just be massaged into the model.
And that last point is really the problem with model based physics. They are really really hard to falsify which can provide certainty through inertia. For instance take the heliocentric vs geocentric earth. The geocentric view (that the Earth was the center upon which everything rotated) was based upon a model. It started out fairly simple and intuitive. But then we kept coming upon ever more issues. For instance if everything else rotates around Earth then that must mean other planets travel in sort of 'swirly' type patterns that we see nowhere else in physics. Well, okay - why not. Hmm it also turns out that some planets, such as Mercury, need to just magically stop in their orbit and start going backwards at some point. Again, it's a model that we can't really falsify so okay - why not.
And it absorbs really bizarre observation after another. The only way to refute it was ultimately to be able to see 'through the eyes of god' that geocentricism was wrong. This was not hubris or ignorance on part of the scientific community. It was inertia. Hundreds of years scientific study was built upon the assumption of a geocentric Earth. Astrology was a scholarly pursuit, at least as reputable as psychology is today, developed over centuries. And it was 100% dependent upon the geocentric model. We've rewritten history to blame geocentricism on the church alone, but there was far more in play there. Going against the geocentric model meant having the arrogance to call numerous well reputed fields completely wrong, to completely discredit and repudiate the work of the most brilliant minds of the times, and to basically say you somehow know better than hundreds of years of work and pretty much everybody else.
No, it's certainly not hubris that drives inertia. It's the lack thereof. Einstein's theory of relativity sounds absolutely insane. It took the sort of man who would go on to condescendingly mock quantum entanglement as "spooky action at a distance" to have the sort of ego and self confidence, bordering on hubris, to be able to not only consider such possibilities but to spend years of countless effort refining and developing it. Much of this done when he, unable to find a professorial position, was working in a patent office - no less! Indeed if we have any bias in play, I'd expect it's rather a contagion of humility driven by the exponential growth in complexity.
If anything, the arrogance would come in the form of an aggressive disregard for alternatives. See the practically militant response to things such as MOND [2] hypotheses. It still suffers many problems, as does dark matter, but remains a viable alternative hypothesis which remains rather unexplored. Of course there is a practical issue there. Since nobody expects things such as MOND to be correct, which it probably is not, then spending years proving that is effectively wasted. By contrast as most people expect dark matter to be correct, proving it right or wrong would be an achievement worthy of a trip to Stockholm. It means pursuing MOND (or other alternatives) is a very difficult choice, in terms of career progression and prospects. Scientific inertia is a problem with no clear solution.
> what is dark matter? is it the opposite of matter? how can it be called matter when it doesn't exist?
Dark matter is what we call the discrepancy between our observations of how galaxies and galaxy clusters move, and how our theories tell us they should move based on our best estimates for how much normal matter is in those galaxies.
We call it "dark matter" because our formulas give the right prediction if we add a lot of mass where we see none, that is, if we assume there is some matter there that does not emit or interact with light.
AFAIK, the difference between general relativity with 3 spatial dimensions and one with additional spatial dimensions show up on the small scale, and not large scale like galaxies[1].
> could it not be the space-time curvature from the mass itself but from the encapsulating dark matter around it
If dark matter is indeed some kind of matter, then it would indeed affect the space-time curvature. That's in fact the entire point behind calling it dark _matter_, as mentioned above.
Of course there is the possibility that our theories needs to change. There have been proposed alternatives that does not require additional matter in the form of new particles. The problem is that it's very difficult to get the theories to match non-dark matter observations, all the "normal stuff", as well as dark matter observations.
>We call it "dark matter" because our formulas give the right prediction if we add a lot of mass where we see none, that is, if we assume there is some matter there that does not emit or interact with light.
I'm not a physics expert so forgive me if this is a naive take, but could black holes just sitting around, too far from other objects to have a visible effect, account for this unaccounted mass? IIRC they're small in size but incredibly heavy, and if space is infinite then they could just be sitting around taking up mass.
Someone has thought of this, mainly involving primordial black holes. IIRC the idea is that right after the big bang, when the subtle density differences in the gas permeating the entire universe caused pockets of gas to contract and eventually form stars, some pockets would collapse into black holes directly.
edit: I should add that they can't be regular black holes formed from stars, because then they'd have the same distribution of the stars in the galaxy they formed. While the the stars in a galaxy are most numerous near the center and get less numerous away from the center, the mass we have to insert in the form of dark matter to make the equations add up has to be evenly spread from the center and far beyond the visible edge of the galaxy.
The problem with this primordial black hole idea is that having lots of such black holes about would leave a very tell-tale signature thanks to gravitational lensing, which would be very strong near the event horizon. So far, no searches have found this.
I think part of the issue with dark matter and similar is that the main stream mostly hears about the theories that are the best candidates, and not about all the alternative explanations physicists have thought about but discarded due to some more or less obvious issues. Most won't even make it to arXiv, since they'll be eliminated by some rudimentary cross checks.
So the public might get the impression that physicists don't even try to come up with alternatives, but that couldn't be further from the truth.
Dark matter is the hole in the formulas, the dark spot were no lights shines yet. We don't really know whether it exists or not, we only know that our models of the universe have this strange corner were things don't work as they should work. And because all the others corners work so well, we assume that there must be something else.
Its called dark matter because the strange corner is in the models regarding matter. Thre is also dark energy, a strange corner in our models of energy.
this is a bad fucking idea to allow your DNA sequences to be shared with the government.
but seems like a trend now, just to blindly copy what celebrities endorse so
more power to you folks who submitted your DNA, you can never take it back, and they have it forever.
Any crime your descendants or you commit in the future or the propensity to commit crime under the right psychosexual circumstances carefully driven by subliminal messaging, are fucked.
that is quite chilling but not surprising from the US.
I wonder if this had impact on the drop in crime rates during the 90s.
Imagine a carefully targeted campaign against genetically disposed to violence and allergy to education. You can sterilize entire 'hoods bye putting guns, drugs and alcohol there and just wait for the environment to infect all others.
Like considering the overwhelming prison population in the US is black or latino, you can't help but wonder at some grand conspiracy that's aimed at sorting out the unfit from the normal.
thats the kind of problem i work on (millions per sec at peak). everything is a queue and we stream from servers via kafka and into processors into redshift, more or less. Its free once it's moving around in AWS, but redshift and processors get expensive and im interested in reliable ad hoc solutions... but havent seen it.
can you elaborate on the process of copying data into Redshift? How often do you run COPY commands? On a continuous basis? Asking since Redshift as an OLAP isn't really optimized for heavy writes, so if you've figured out a way to do it, please bottle that magic!
You know, I'm not sure why people get so snooty about self-diagnosed ASD. (Speaking as some who was formally diagnosed as a child.) Our definition of autism is based on symptoms. This isn't like someone with a rash deciding it's caused by imbalanced humors. It's more like someone noting that their skin is red, itchy, and has little bumps on it, and deciding that they have a rash.
Also, the study specifically dealt with people who had formal diagnoses already, so I'm really not sure how your comment is even relevant.
> Our definition of autism is based on symptoms. This isn't like someone with a rash deciding it's caused by imbalanced humors. It's more like someone noting that their skin is red, itchy, and has little bumps on it, and deciding that they have a rash.
No, it's not. A rash is a symptom, not a disorder diagnosed from a complex combination of symptoms; it's more like self-diagnosis of AIDS prior to the discovery of the role of HIV, and the use of HIV testing.
Our definition of autism, like many psychological conditions, is based on symptoms--behavior and development--not causes. We're learning more about the underlying reasons why brains work the way they do, so that may change eventually. But right now, if you have a large number of autistic symptoms, you most likely meet the diagnostic criteria for ASD.
In young children, the visible symptoms of autism may mimic other developmental conditions, so a professional diagnosis is important. An intelligent adult can make the distinction for themselves, given enough information. (Though they'll still need a diagnosis to seek treatment or accommodations.)
> Our definition of autism, like many psychological conditions, is based on symptoms--behavior and development--not causes.
That's also true of many physical conditions with unknown causes, hence the comparison to pre-knowledge-of-HIV AIDS as a more apt comparison than a rash.
> But right now, if you have a large number of autistic symptoms, you most likely meet the diagnostic criteria for ASD.
By DSM 5 criteria, you need either two or three symptoms (depending on exactly where you bound así for symptom) symptoms, manifesting by a particular time, with specific social impact, and all the potential symptoms (and the impact) are defined in a way that even an intelligent
layman in a position to be objective rather than applying a bias from their own position is likely to have trouble applying them well.
My son (8) is going through a diagnosis at the moment, in fact tomorrow we will be going to the last meeting with a pediatrician to effectively get my sons "Autism" badge ( Which here in NZ will open up a lot of funding for assisitance ).
Do you have any advice on things that were beneficial for you? Or alternatively things that were super horrible and should be avoided?
Hmmm. It was the '80s, so I don't remember a lot of the specifics. But there's a lot more public awareness and support now than when I was growing up, so there's that.
I guess the main thing for dealing with any autistic people is to remember that they're bad both at emoting and at reading others' emotions. If he seems insensitive sometimes, it may be that he doesn't realize he's being hurtful, or it may be that he's actually very upset but is shutting down and can't express himself effectively. We can learn to be better at both of those, but it doesn't come naturally.
This was less of a problem for me, but I've heard about autistic kids who frequently got yelled at/punished and genuinely didn't understand why, and that can be very damaging; you wind up afraid to do anything for fear of violating unknown and unspoken rules. So, I guess, try to be patient and talk to him when he acts out. Remember also that he may not be able to put his reasons for things into words, especially if he's upset or feeling pressured; that doesn't mean he doesn't have a reason.
Be patient, do your homework, listen to his doctors, be willing to talk to his teachers and go to bat for him at school, and I'm sure you'll do all right.
This is clearly a possibility, but is it just guesswork on your part? Are there actual stats on the false positive rate of self diagnosis that you can point to?
I was self-diagnosed for years, was tested for autism as a child (age 5), was borderline and back then there was no spectrum, you was either full on autistic or not. Few years later things changed, though it wasn't until I was in my early 40's that I got a formal diagnoses for aspergers.
This was mainly brought on due to numerous employment experiences and mostly the last one in which the company I worked for sent me to America to work for 3 weeks. Simple enough, though fiscally they utterly destroyed me. Chap from Canada (company base) was also over there. For me to cover expenses over there they sorted me out a pittance expense advance. Chap from Canada, had 5x that advanced! Equally my boss messed up the form, did it as salary advance and upshot was first week there I realised I was going to be paid nothing end of the month, be owed a bucket load of expenses and my rent and all my bills would bounce.
Short version, boss failed to sort it out, complained to HR about me chassing him about it and my subsequent breakdown, lossed the job, home, everything. Still not recovered from that.
More to the story, things like started low salary, told would get big pay rise after few month, never happened. Promoted without pay rise, did most of the work (including peers stealing credit for my work.
But then, get many things that upset you in work. Recall in another company, having time off for family funeral, arraged return date and come back to work to find somebody sitting at my desk!
I will say one issue that I wished I'd identified early was never to mix work with pashions. As I literally burned myself out so many time that the toll has been horrendous. Made lots of people very rich, but got taken advantage off something rotten.
Had I had an earlier diagnoses, life would of been easier for sure. That I have no doubts and I'd of been in better shape today mentally.
So anybody self-diagnosing - just get formally diagnosed, just to protect yourself from being abused.
That said, I have found that in some area's of life, your better of not even saying you have mental health quirks. AS you end up getting patronised and somewhat ignored. I've had personal experience with the UK Police and frankly it's shocking how bad you can be treated.
Still, encouraging that some companies being properly mindful about such people and with that, not just giving lip-service. Just a bit late for me alas, I'm a spent force in mid 50's now.
i thought i had aspergers but it turned out I was actually transgendered.
im willing to bet that the number of transgender population is a lot higher.
unabomber was also diagnosed to be transgender using modern definition.
my theory is ted bundy was also a transgender. there exists a sort of misogynistic jealousy towardsthe opposite sex but he is an extreme and rarely example along with unabomber.
people who are transgender are literally in a constant state of mental anguish. then you have normies and the social structure which is tilted to hetrosexual cis-gender populace.
i only found out i was transgender after decades of denial. its important to never lie to yourself. its amazing how much you can trick yourself in to believing in the image that those around you have set.
screaming someone misgendered you won't do jack shit.
as a transwoman my career options are now prostitution, pornography, and the drug trade but probably will be overlaps.
> i thought i had aspergers but it turned out I was actually transgendered.
As a trans woman, I must say that I am confused as to how you might mix up those two. The symptoms are really different. Those are not exclusive either.
> people who are transgender are literally in a constant state of mental anguish
Only until you get therapy and treatment. Once my gender dysphoria was under control, I was free of any negative mental health issues related to being transgender.
> as a transwoman my career options are now prostitution, pornography, and the drug trade but probably will be overlaps.
Nope, still working in STEM. I know quite a few trans programmers.
Well, as far as I can gather from your posting history you are from Vancouver.
I know several people from western Canada that live openly trans and work without any issues. Don't give up because of a handful of bad employers and some bad experiences.
They added protection to the B.C. Human Rights Code in 2016 and there are a lot of protections Canada wide.
This is not an humble brag, this is your rights. You have the right to work in any field you want. In STEM we even have the opportunity to work remotely, which helps if you are too uncomfortable to be out in public.
every fucking position i applied to i was turned down because it had 'client facing roles'
I even said i would use my male voice on the phone because I don't wanna weird people out
This was an issue also at my old job.
I feel that I wasted a decade in the tech industry, mostly startups.
now im in my early 30s, im totally fucked.
i think lot of pornstars do it just so they can prostitute themselves.
Vancouver has social liberal rights with none of it actually respected by the population. theres still the old judeo-christian ethics along with sino ethics which make it way worse.
I'm considered a freak and will be so .
Society doesn't want to see me, or acknowledge me. what options are there for me?
what options are there for the negroes in detroit ghetto?
what options are there for people who are completely shunned and unwanted by mainstream society and even family and friends?
I don't understand why you are so hostile with me.
All I'm doing is telling you that you have rights and that you should not give up. That there are people living in your city with similar situations as yours that have managed to make it through.
I know one person who moved from Québec to B.C. to start a new life as their true gender, so I have a hard time believing that the situation is as bad as you describe it. I'm sure it feels that way, being trans is absolutely crushing but our perception of the world around us is often flawed.
Looking at your posting history here, most of your recent comments are either dead or negative. That's people who have no idea you are trans. In my eyes, the issue lies elsewhere. You act very crudely and I can only hope that you do not act the same way at the workplace or during job interviews.
Have you considered moving to another province instead of changing career? There are a lot of LGBTQ+ friendly cities across Canada.
I've seen firsthand how shitty things can be for trans people. I'm sorry. I hope you can find a support system that meets your needs.
> i thought i had aspergers but it turned out I was actually transgendered.
Is it possible that you're trans and Asperger's? There's research suggesting that they appear together more often than chance would suggest. It would explain the surprising frequency of trans people in tech fields, as well. Anecdotally, three of the four trans people I'm close to are diagnosed ASD, and I have my suspicions about the fourth.
My point is that you don't have any standing to claim that, and you're probably wrong.
Given how many hoops the medical establishment makes trans people jump through to "prove" that they're really trans and need treatment, I'd think you'd be more sympathetic.
> Given how many hoops the medical establishment makes trans people jump through to "prove" that they're really trans and need treatment
There's not a lot of hoops to jump through as an adult in Canada.
You can simply find a therapist and ask for an informed consent form. Sign it and you get access to Hormone replacement therapy.
The gender marker change is even easier, all you need is to fill a form that you can order at anytime for $140. On that form you write your new name and correct gender. Then, you only need someone else to sign under oath with you.
16 hours ago it was already submitted here : https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=19140804
Strangely, it was quickly hidden and one of the comments pointed to this explanation of how shadow banking works in China and the potential risk.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=auiGFRmD0tg
Essentially, these two large borrowers missing bond payment is a signal of worst to come.
It's not a question of if or when such crash will come but who will go down first and the big question: Can Chinese leadership be able to survive this time around? Deng Xiaopeng's remedy to deteriorating grip on the country was market capitalism, but now that it has proven to be largely a failure with half a billion Chinese living in poverty or barely what is considered Standard living in the west, with no political free will and expression protected, how long can the people bare it?
There are already signs of simmering tensions between the state and people. Much like leading up to the Tianmen Square incident 40 years ago in 1989, we are seeing similar themes - the rise of student activists with little to nothing to lose, a deteriorating economy now on the verge of misnky effect, now with a KGB puppet applying pressure via trade sanctions....
I estimate some major event taking place after the North Korea-America summit, the outcomes of that meeting will determine what chips China will use to get America off it's back.....
yup, you guessed right, another nuclear test this year along with ICBM/SLBM tests, launching skirmishes in NLL zone....
OR
another tianmen square unfortunately...as Chinese leadership realizes America's not about to go easy, it will have no choice but to kill it's own citizens who will riot when they los their jobs and savings.
The domino chips are all set in place, and it's just waiting for that final push.