More important than simple probability is the “expectancy value”, which is roughly spoken (and cumulatively) the probability multiplied by the effect when the probability comes to pass.
I just translated the German term Erwartungswert wrong. The English term seems to be “expected value”, and it’s basic enough that you learn it in high school.
There aren't any self driving cars on the road that don't have a safety driver, and the ones that are out there get confused all the time. The Uber one had a software dev turn off the lidar sensor to test the computer vision at night and it ended up killing a woman crossing the street.
Most self-driving is done in warm climates, in a circle. These companies are amassing thousands of empty miles on the same streets every day to impress people who don't know any better.
I lived on a branch of the main Google circuit, and often they were the only traffic for most of the day. Even saw three Google vehicles in a line, but two were more common.
What's the value of "self-driving" with no weather, traffic or route variation? PR and regulatory filing stats.
Last time cruise made a report about disengagements (where the safety driver had to take over) it was one every 5000 miles driven. That's 1 crash the car was prevented from every 5000 miles. Humans crash once per 70000 miles.
How do you explain actual self-driving cars on the road? I find this attitude confusing as it seems to not jive with empirical reality.
I agree that we should focus on mass transit, but Waymo drives hundreds/thousands of miles without driver intervention.