Did you mean that you were waiting for the regular use authorization rather than the emergency use authorization? OK, that's expected early next month:
You might want to make your reservation early, since I hear a lot of people claiming that they're waiting for that. Of course it's the very same vaccine that's available today; it's just a matter of going over the paperwork to make sure all of the i's are dotted and t's crossed.
Once upon a time there was town called Statisticsville with a population of 1000 people. Every year around 8 people die. Sometimes 7, sometimes 9. One year, a new infectious disease came along and killed 2 additional people (both elderly). The population nearly had a civil war over these additional 2 deaths because some people thought the additional 2 deaths could have been prevented with better enforced public health practices while the other group thought it wasn't worth the social/economic costs. Looking forward to the next year, the people were still divided into two groups - those who were worried that the infectious disease might kill another person, and those that didn't really care much. The discord and contention between the groups escalated with each side increasingly rigid and unable to empathize with the other side until violence broke out and Statisticsville descended into anarchy.
That sounds odd way for people to behave. Perhaps there is something else going on in Statisticsville that wasn't mentioned?
Maybe, even though only 2 people died, another 8 got admitted to hospital with a serious life threatening disease. Of the 6 that were discharged, 2 suffered continuous relapses requiring multiple readmissions and major life style changes (like stopping work).
Or perhaps there was something significant about the extra 2 that died. Maybe, rather being in retirement, they were in their 30's, shouldering the peak of adult responsibilities like child raising?
> For younger people who are unwell enough to be hospitalised with COVID-19, the outcomes can be quite serious. A large study from the United Kingdom showed 27% of 19 to 29-year-olds admitted to hospital suffered some form of organ damage to the liver, lungs or kidneys
The part where the "economic costs" of preventing the disease have been reduced to cheap masks and free vaccines, and yet they're still somehow too high. Because it was never really about the economic costs, but about a longstanding culture war.
2,854,838 registered deaths in 2019, which is 0.8% of the population, or about 8 in 1000 [1]
As of December 31 2020, around 400k people had died of covid in the USA, but let's just be conservative and pretend 600k people died in 2020. 600k out of 330M is 0.18% of the population or about 2 in 1000 [2]
Nah, it's the part where you and the author conveniently fail to point out that that 600k fatality number (which is close to the current number in the US) is after taking truly historic measures to prevent disease transmission.
Had we truly done nothing that number would be significantly higher.
But, of course, as was so very predictable at the start, because these measures were in fact pretty effective at slowing spread and preventing death, we have folks saying "Well gee, that wasn't so bad was it!"
I quite literally predicted that outcome 18 months ago, and I'm glad to see I wasn't disappointed...
I padded the death count by 50% to account for this in the story (400k people died of covid in the USA in 2020, not 600k).
If you compare covid deaths per capita across various states, you won't find huge differences even though some states had extreme restrictions in place (California) and some states had lax restrictions in place (Utah, Florida, etc).
Say there's a parallel universe where masks and social distancing were encouraged but optional and business were not forced to shut down and people were not ordered to shelter in place. How much higher is the covid death count per year in this fictional parallel universe? More than 50%? 2-3x higher? If you have any real-world examples you could point to to make your case, that would be helpful.
Anyway, all this doesn't really matter though, because you missed the point of the story. The point of the story was that (for Statisticsville, at least) the people were so busy fighting amongst themselves about what actions to take (or not) about an infectious disease that they didn't realize the deadly side effects of that social discord until it was too late.
Will the USA avoid the deadly consequences of its current social discord and become a united people again before it's too late? Stay tuned to find out!
> If you have any real-world examples you could point to to make your case, that would be helpful.
India or Brazil would seem to be the obvious counterfactuals. Unfortunately, their officially reported death rates probably can't be trusted so the best we can do is look at excess deaths, and in India, as an example, it's... pretty ugly:
That's closer to 3 deaths per thousand, or 50% higher than your estimate.
Putting that in context, assuming 8 deaths per thousand as a baseline, that number going to 11 per thousand is a 40% increase in excess deaths.
And that's ignoring that those deaths will be concentrated in specific cohorts (the elderly, the vulnerable, people in high risk jobs, etc) who don't have the luxury of working from a cozy home office.
> The point of the story was that (for Statisticsville, at least) the people were so busy fighting amongst themselves about what actions to take (or not) about an infectious disease that they didn't realize the deadly side effects of that social discord until it was too late.
This is, unfortunately, a unique problem of the US. While there's certainly been plenty of social discord in other countries as a consequence of Covid policies, they've been nowhere near the level of what's seen in the US.
The solution isn't to compromise public health policy so as to avoid touching off a partisan foodfight. The solution is to address the root problem that has lead to such severe social discord; to heal those fissures that have opened up in US society that have lead to every single issue being politicized and thus polarized to the detriment of the entire population.
India is a very bad counterexample. 1) Think tank estimates of 10-fold higher mortality than official should be taken with a grain of salt. 2) It is a poor country with many problems – corruption (they failed to deliver oxygen cylinders to hospitals just because nobody cared), 3) healthcare issues (untreated TB, infectious diseases etc.), 4) social aspects (housing, slums, overcrowded places). Do you know what is the average life expectancy in Indian slums? The last time I checked it was just about 40 years. They can and will vaccinate against covid but to help slum dwellers they will need much more work and social changes.
In short, it is in no way comparable to any western country.
Brazil mortality however is only <50% higher than the US so it is not even worth to analyse it.
the calculation for the death rate - mortality rate - of a disease depends on how many people that contracted the disease died, not how many people there are in the universe. [0] so sick of seeing this bullshit repeated over and over. downvote away. again.
I can. I got my shots as soon as I could, but I know lots of people that will never do it. Yesterday I was eating at a ramen shop - traffic was slow, so I got to listen to the bulletproof young man waiting tables talk to his friend at length about how he'd never get the shot, just like the flu, I'm not an anti-vaxxer - but, I don't wear tinfoil hats - but.
The list of reasons not to do it was long and apparently convincing enough to them.
I have no real needle phobia but in the past I was never very fond of them either, because they felt unpleasant. But with my recent vaccinations I really could not tell when it started or ended. Modern injection needles are a lot smaller than the ones that were used a decade ago.
Some tips:
Try to relax your muscles. Lift your arms and let them fall down again.
Look away is the most solid advice here. Pain from vaccination (at least immediate pain) is mostly in our heads. I hate needles but I always tell about it to the person giving me the shot (or take blood) and look away. If you ever got stung by a bee or got a paper cut, those are probably a thousand times more painful and you don't even see those coming to be prepared.
You're right. Needle phobia is an officially recognized phobia, and there's a Wikipedia page (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fear_of_needles) about it, with estimates from 10% to well over 20% of the US adult population being needle phobic. (I'm vaccinated and not needle phobic.)
I was asking the same thing the other day. No way to prove it, but I would say it's probably 25%.
Before this all started, I knew quite a few people who were just terrified of needles. Now, it's not that they're terrified, it's just [insert BS reason]
It me. I put off the needle for a long time—in fact my last shot was in 1991. Until last month. And hopefully that will be my last needle, since so many more humane methods of delivery are just around the corner.
Possibly, but they wouldn't make a noticeable number. The antivaxxers crowd is bigger and more motivated by the same nonsense. I wonder why they, including the same people who hate injections, never complained about mandatory vaccines for their kids, a practice that went on for decades in many countries?
For example, most European countries had and still have 10 or more obligatory vaccinations for diseases that were finally defeated thanks to the practice, yet I have to meet one parent who refuses to let their kids receive it. I have good memory, and don't recall of anyone screaming when I was taking the anti-smallpox shot as a kid; it's just the same bullshit planted in their heads through social media.
The covid vaccine is newer, therefore not tested enough? Bullshit! Every vaccine has been "young" at some time. There are no records of people protesting back then about treatments against diphteria, meningitis, polyo and others.
There may be some side effects? Again a pile of bullshit. Lots of medicines can have side effects but people don't protest in the streets about that.
Years back I took too many painkillers for my back pains, unfortunately they attacked my guts bacterial flora so I got an intestinal blockage while experiencing a sudden drop in blood red cells. I spent weeks taking tests and restoratives before it was clear I didn't have leukemia, which is present in my family and is what my father died of.
No, it's not fear of the needle, it's pure and simple politicized misinformation through social media and other sources. Those idiots follow what their leaders say without turning on the brain; no critical thinking, or any consideration for the evidence: they're the perfect army any corrupt politician would love to herd.
I have likely received more vaccinations than most people here, as a result of my travels and history. I have not been vaccinated for COVID-19. I did receive a positive test (a few days of unusual coughing and lethargy) in November, and confirmed with extensive antibody testing recently that I still have natural resistance. I am not opposed to getting vaccinated, if/when necessary, but now is not that time. I am well informed of the risk/reward matrices and the mechanisms of this coronavirus and its variants.
Your portrayal is disgusting to me, full of irrational hatred and prejudicial biases. It seems borne of an unwavering religious fervor, the likes of which we haven't seen in the West for hundreds of years. I do hope you find some peace within, rather than needing to spew your hateful language across the world.
what do you find hateful? Do you not think that there is alot of politicized misinformation now that is making the current public health crisis worse? One of my best friends has fallen for qanon. He thinks that vaccine makes you magnetic and Michelle Obama is a man. Should we be ok with this? squarefoot does not say he wishes harm on anyone, he just sounds frustrated, and i can relate
With all due respect, you're wrong in believing I was referring to you.
I've got symptomatic Covid-19 in late october 2020, loss of taste and smell, bad cough and high temperatures for about a week, but since it wasn't that bad and hospitals back then were overwhelmed by people in much worse conditions, so I stayed at home with my girlfriend (Covid positive as well but weaker symptoms) although in daily contact with my doctor which prescribed me the necessary cures. After recovering and passing a negative test I started enjoying my freedom, but apparently 2020 had other plans for me, so in early december I suffered the worst road accident in my life, which required 2 surgeries and almost 2 months of hospitalization.
I have no idea why, but as soon as I was brought to the ER, they tested me for Covid with a swab, which turned positive. I can see myself telling them "that's impossible, I recovered just 3 weeks ago!" but they didn't believe me until my girlfriend brought the entire documentation about that. Problem was that I was still positive, multiple tests confirmed it, although this time 100% asymptomatic, so they were forced to send me in the Covid ward. Being in a Covid ward means you won't see anyone's face, nor have any contacts with your family or friends. Even nurses and doctors will quickly do what is necessary to assist you then rush out of the room asap.
I spent all December and most of January there, and could see people dead or dying of Covid in their beds. I counted 5 of them: 3 in intensive care and 2 in the room. In one case I could see the poor man being helped by the nurses to get in bed, then putting a couple oxygen pipes in his nostrils, jut like the ones they gave to me although I didn't need them. In a few days, the man conditions worsened steadily, so he was first given an oxygen mask, then an helmet, then he was intubated, and a couple more days they pronounced him dead, put him in a bag and carried him away.
I also had as roommate an elder man who happened to succesfully defeat Covid, although he ended up completely dissociated (possibly lack of oxygen?), so for a couple weeks I had there a poor man who kept calling loudly his mom, a number of his relatives, the police (he kept screaming that someone was attempting to kill him), and other people like every 10 seconds until either he had no voice anymore, or the nurses sedated him. I believe that I was sedated with him as well through the same oxygen circuit, since in a few cases I experienced hallucinations and bad dreams (I was in a line of beds in a field slowly going forward for my turn to get surgery) which seemed taken straight from an early Pink Floyd album.
All of this, then eventually I got home, although in need of daily rehabilitation for one more month, and other therapies later (broken L4 is nasty).
My condition, minus the accident, isn't that different from yours. I also took a spike test in late March, which confirmed I had a very high antibodies level, and... surprise: I'm not vaccinated as well, although I'm already in line to get it on Aug 11, Pfizer, probably a single dose for having already been positive.
What we're in very different leagues, again minus the accident, is the knowledge of the dangers of Covid. I could see people either dead or dying, and am not comfortable knowing that every time someone doesn't take any precautions, the result might be more deaths. I would have no problems if negationists and anti-vaxxers would get home, alone, and remain there until Covid is 100% eradicated, but that is not the case as they often wander around with no protections during their protests. Knowingly acting as virus carriers is a freedom they shouldn't deserve; they simply disgust me.
Of course I'm not putting people with allergies, or others who have serious medical conditions that prevent them from taking vaccines; that should have been clear from the beginning. About the others? I have zero respect for them.
A relative of mine is buying into the vaccine conspiracies along with shitting on depression and other mental problems, and honestly, I wish they'd get a serious case of Covid or something.
These people don't learn until someone they know actually fucking dies.
I'm not conspiratorial but I am "vaccine hesitant" as they call it here in the US. For instance, if I theoretically got bitten by a rabid dog and I didn't want to die I would take the rabies vax.
I personally disapprove of the COVID vaccine since it is very unusual for vaccines to be made in two days...and evidence regarding long-term side effects is scarce.
However if taking the Covid vaccine meant I would get $10k in cash, then of course I would take it.
Yeah, I am more pissed at the dismissal of metal health. Don't care much about Covid, had it, it was weak. I'd take the vaccine just to regain the freedoms. Then again I'd take anything lol, some shit I tried really sent me down some weird holes. And I would welcome death, so meh.
Oh that guy, hey! I came home and my account is banned heh. Fantastic.
Instead of trying to tackle crime, drug use, depression, etc. at a surface level, the government should take a step back and try to look at WHY we are slaves to instant dopamine.
This anti-vax nonsense has really tested my ability to not wish suffering on others. I’ve climbed that hill and found the empathy for these people, but it took actual mental effort.
The more people it infects (even if it is young healthy people), the greater chance of more deadly strain. COVID-19 isn't that deadly, but is highly infectious. What happens if it mutates into something like this (another form of the coronavirus):
When you are young and care about other people, you should really get vaccinated. When there are many vaccinated individuals the number of infections drops dramatically, which helps to protect vulnerable individuals (some of them might be young).
* Not infecting others who are more at risk or cannot get the vaccine (allergies, age, availability) or are higher risk than you (age, preconditions), including anti-vaxxers (I would be devastated if a beloved family members died even if they rejected the vaccine).
* Doing your part to wipe Covid out so we get back to normal (do you have a better plan?)
* Wiping Covid out so we don't get a worse strain like the delta strain that will affect younger people.
* The lag between a particularly bad strain circulating widely and you finding out about it.
* Long Covid including brain chronic fatigue / brain fog, potential non fatal but still permanent, debilitating lung damage, cardiovascular damage leading to increased risk of strokes later on. Which has been shown to be a risk for young people as well, more than death.
* Avoiding the massive inconvenience of a potential multi week "very bad flu".
* The medical experts (gov agencies, universities, industries) across the world all strongly recommending it. (Have you at least asked your primary care physician if you should get it? Why not?)
* Benefitting from the exemptions granted to vaccinated people such as indoor dining in NYC and entering the US from Europe and vice versa.
* Keeping your job when they mandate it unofficially or officially (I've seen both).
* The demonstrated risk of dying from covid, and even more so the risk of long covid, as a young person still being way higher than the theoretical / non demonstrated risk of the vaccine. Especially since we have already vaccinated >1.5 billion people - if anything should be seriously wrong with the vaccines, fixing that and helping affected people would likely immediately become an important topic of medical research as soon as we find out.
* Fringe benefits like the lotteries for vaccinated people.
* There being clear evidence of covid being downplayed for political reasons, especially in the US and in 2020. But everywhere else and in 2021 as well. Prominent politicians who have downplayed it still having gotten the vaccine (granted, they're all old people, and your question was about young people). The same politicians constantly retreating from one wrong position to another as they are proven wrong again and again. Whereas the "other side" has so far mostly been right on every major topic.
* Political players that normally don't agree on anything agreeing on this - Russia, China and the US all have a vaccine program and recommend vaccination for essentially everyone. Inside the US, the Democrats are obviously in favor of vaccination, but do not forget that two vaccines got emergency approval while the Republicans had control of all three branches.
* Young people being vaccinated and showing up in vaccination stats influencing older people to get vaccinated.
* Last and least all the anecdotes of people who on their deathbed said they should've gotten the damn vaccine.
I hope you understand that we will not be “wiping out COVID” any time soon.
We need long term management strategies that are actually sustainable and protect the most vulnerable. And we probably need to worry less about persuading the die hards and more about things like standing up booster distribution and making ventilation improvements.
And a lot of the die hards will probably come around when the vaccine becomes part of the normal, boring health care routine instead of something they’re being “forced into” in an emergency, You know, you go in to the clinic in the winter with a cold. Doc asks if you’ve had your flu shot. Asks if you’ve had your COVID shot. That’s a much more comfortable context for people, I think.
> And a lot of the die hards will probably come around when the vaccine becomes part of the normal, boring health care routine instead of something they’re being “forced into” in an emergency, You know, you go in to the clinic in the winter with a cold. Doc asks if you’ve had your flu shot. Asks if you’ve had your COVID shot. That’s a much more comfortable context for people, I think.
Have you looked at uptake rates for the seasonal flu vaccine?
> Flu vaccination coverage among adults ≥18 years was 45.3%, an increase of 8.2 percentage points from the 2017–18 flu season and 2.0 percentage points higher than the 2016–17 season.
Well 70% of people adults are already on board, so we don’t need to worry about besting that number. The question is how do reduce resistance. My totally made up theory is that some people are just generally resistant to things being “pushed” from above, and some people are more concerned about new technology than others. Both of those things will probably improve as this cools off and becomes less political. In the mean time, there are other things we could be working on.
I think it's far more likely that the expressed reasons you cite are, for many (I'd bet 15-20% of the population), just rationalizations for the underlying reason which is that being anti-covid-vaccine is now a part of some folks political, cultural, and/or religious identity.
And it is damn tough to break through something like that. That's doubly true when political and religious leaders are actively pushing people to not get vaccinated.
No, I’m not discounting it. That’s what I’m talking about when i refer to people resistant to things “pushed from above.” I’m saying that’s part of the issue, and it’s only going to be solved (if it can be), by depoliticizing the issue and making it a mundane medical concern. And that’s going to take time, and backing off the stick.
Or… you know, just give people 500 bucks (including everybody who already did it.)
Vaccines reduce ones chance of acquiring a Delta infection by a significant margin (not as high as previous variants but still significant). Even if you assume just 50% effectiveness in preventing disease (which is very conservative), that dramatically lowers the R-value and slows spread.
> Vaccines clearly reduce ones chance of acquiring a COVID infection by a significant margin.
All of that data is pre-Delta. The best thing you can say about the vaccines today is that they tend to reduce the overall severity/prevent people from dying.
The absolute lowest bound estimate was an Israeli study:
> In late July, the ministry further reduced its vaccine effectiveness estimate for symptomatic COVID-19 to 40.5%
However, they have failed to provide the data necessary to evaluate their results, and so at this time there's pretty wide skepticism regarding this figure.
In contrast:
> A study published in the New England Journal of Medicine on July 21 by Public Health England, for example, found that after the two recommended doses, the effectiveness of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine in preventing symptomatic disease in the U.K. fell only slightly, to 88.0% against delta
Being a betting man, I'd say the truth lies somewhere in the middle, but even at 60-70% effectiveness in preventing symptomatic Delta infection, vaccination leads to a significant reduction in R-value.
Hospitalizations don't drop off anywhere near as fast as deaths do. About every 8 years younger halves the death rate, about every 15 years younger halves the hospitalization rate.
And delta has a hospitalization rate which is across the board twice the rate of alpha (with age/sex/deprivation/comorbidity-matched patients).
The virus is also not done mutating and is facing evolutionary pressure to become more transmissible, which is mostly through the mechanism of increased viral loads which has the knock-on effect of increasing virulence and hospitalization/death rates. In the short term it isn't getting any better and its only getting worse (turns out viruses don't always naturally evolve to become less virulent, and epidemiologists have known that since the 90s).
The hospitalization rate for old D614G variant in 20 year olds was 1%, that should be up to 2% now with delta. The hospitalization rate of vaccination in 20 year olds is probably too low to be measurable. If you're worried about 1-in-10,000 or worse vaccine side effects you should be much more worried about the virus landing you in the hospital (even though it probably won't kill you).
Vaccines also don't cause outbreaks of side effects months or years later. The vaccine is cleared in a few days, all that remains is the immune system response. That immune response can cause autoimmune side effects just like any virus can cause autoimmune side effects. What we know from a couple hundred years of studying viruses and vaccines is that the side effects appear in 90 days or they don't. There's no lingering time bombs, the immune system doesn't work that way (that would be a fantastically shitty way for the immune system to evolve, so it didn't).
And the mRNA vaccines are just a fragment of the virus genome that cannot reproduce which is packaged in a lipid (fat) particle that will get naturally shredded. It is both as close to "natural" as we can make it to have a low side effect profile and its also highly effective. If you manage to get naturally infected you get a pile of other shit from the virus genome plus self-replicating virions trying to kill you, which is all worse, nothing better.
And due to the concept of original antigenic sin you really do want to have your first exposure to the virus be something which your immune system mounts a strong defense to and learns how to clear the virus without killing you. If you get infected for real and wind up in the hospital your maladaptive response to the virus may wind up causing you problems down the road as the virus becomes endemic and you get infected with a different strain in the future. You should be worried about the long-term effects of that a lot more than the long-term effects of the vaccine.
Covid can't live long outside a host, and it absolutely can't reproduce outside a host. It uses the host's cell reproduction mechanisms to reproduce. IT CANNOT REPRODUCE ON ITS OWN. That's why the virus infects you, so that it can reproduce, and its species can continue to exist. Its niche is to use the host's cell reproduction mechanisms to reproduce.
If we had strong herd immunity, then covid would likely become something deadly but manageable, because the spread would be limited and slower. Mutations would slow, because the mutations would have fewer opportunities to persist.
Everything that reproduces experiences genetic mutation. "Mistakes are made." Most mutations don't persist and don't have much effect. Some mutations cause the organism to die or otherwise fail to reproduce, limiting the mutation's persistence.
Some mutations do persist. Red hair. Downs syndrome. Etc.
The "life cycle" of a virus is very short and very fast. Anyone infected with the virus gives that virus an environment to reproduce, and to mutate. A lot.
All the variants we have, including Delta, which won't be the last, are because enough people gave the virus an environment to thrive.
If you are infected, even if you have no symptoms, then you are providing the virus a safe haven to reproduce, thrive, and mutate. And you will spread it to others.
As for immunity, we have two ways to acquire it. With the vaccine, your body produces an immune response without having to host, increase and spread the virus.
Without the vaccine, if you're infected, and you don't die, then you'll likely have some immunity. But you've also spread it to other people, who may die from it, and who will further spread it. And you'll all probably contribute to the next mutation.
"I'm not vaccinated, and I never got the virus." Maybe. You could have been infected without symptoms, and therefore you did spread it, possibly killing one or more people.
"I got covid, but didn't go to the hospital. I beat it!"
Or,
"I got covid, went to the hospital, but recovered. I beat it!"
No you didn't. You spread it to other people, and helped it mutate into something stronger and more deadly.
"My $PERSON got it, and died in the hospital. But that was their choice, it didn't affect anyone else."
Yes it did. They spread it to other people, and they consumed medical resources and staff that could have been used by other covid and non-covid patients.
It's not just you, it's the people around you that you will infect, and all the follow on results.
Pretty odd article to see from fellow doctor and someone who gets angry at stuff like this probably should find another career. Is she angry at the patients who abused their bodies all their lives, resulting in their inpatient stay? All the heart failure patients who simply refuse to follow simple instructions that would keep them out of the hospital? I just looked, 42% of the patients on our inpatient floor with COVID-19 were vaccinated (this is a small hospital, so I'm not making any conclusion based on that).
I know a doctor at a hospital and he said that the current percentage of vaccinated Covid admissions is very close to the overall percentage of vaccinated people in his area.
Every jurisdiction reporting actual, real data and not just rumours on Fox News has indicated that over 90% of Covid admissions are unvaccinated, even in areas with greater than 50% of the population with two doses.
There's nothing I can show you that would make you believe what I'm saying, so I'm not going to try. But I will say that I heard it directly from a doctor in a high-level position at a large-ish hospital. I know him very well, and he has zero reason to lie to me about it.
But yeah, I'm probably lying (or being lied to) and it's all BS. Whatever works for you. The media (aside from Fox News) is always 100% truthful and must be trusted above everything. Same goes for the government.
Well, you've made false statements and promoted untrue things in this thread, so ... yah, I think I'll err on the side of not believing a goddamn thing you say.
The simple fact that you aren't willing to offer any evidence when asked for it does in fact make you and your assertion appear to be a lot less credible. This is public data at least anywhere in the US. Where is this largish hospital? Inquiring minds want to know.
Is it public data anywhere in the US? I know that my state (Michigan) doesn't break down hospitalizations by vaccination status. Or if they do, it's not with the rest of the Covid data they put out online.
The link below suggests that the story your doctor acquaintance is telling telling is either an outlier for your state or is just incorrect. BTW, I found this data from last week with this search "us hospitalizations covid vaccination status". There's also CDC data which is updated weekly that can be seen in the same search. So not hard or complicated to verify.
Perhaps they or you just misunderstood the context or statistic that was presented. It might not be possible (or advisable), but you could disclose the name of the hospital and we could follow up with them to validate the claim.
There was no misunderstanding. I'm not going to disclose the name of the hospital, which I'm sure you can understand.
I'm just relaying an anecdote that was told to me by someone who would know. I can't offer anything more than that, and I completely understand why anyone would choose not to believe it.
I already supplied data from numerous independent studies that examine that exact question.
Are you saying you haven't actually read any of them?
Want more? Okay, fine, here's just one jurisdiction which provides a wealth of data and a variety of breakdowns, including percentage of hospitalizations by vaccination status (this is a jurisdiction where >60% of eligible people are fully vaccinated and >75% are partially vaccinated, so there's a wealth of data about vaccine effectiveness):
> 92.1% of hospitalized cases (5,260/5,709) since Jan 1, 2021 were unvaccinated or diagnosed within two weeks from the first dose immunization date
I'll grant you that breakdown doesn't specifically break out Delta cases from non-VOC cases, but they also include a specific analysis of vaccine effectiveness versus Delta based on current data in the province:
> B.1.617 Variant [Partial] 57% (51 to 63%) [Complete] 85% (78 to 89%)
Now, this is a blended set of numbers across all vaccine types, and so represents the average effectiveness across Pfizer, Moderna, and AZ. So there's some nuance that's missing, here.
Regardless, even with just a single dose of a COVID vaccine the average effectiveness versus Delta of symptomatic illness is greater than 50%, which, as I previously noted, will absolutely put a significant dent in the R-value. And 85% is absolutely fantastic.
Alright, I showed you mine, now you show me yours.
But it's also a small sample size and there could be many reasons why, in that group, the numbers came out the way they did, including natural clustering.
That would also explain the OPs anecdote as it's very possible an individual hospital is seeing more hospitalizations among the vaccinated just due to the vagaries of statistics. That's why large sample sizes and careful analysis are so important when coming to these conclusions.
But we have substantially more data from Canada and the UK and so far that data shows that the vaccines are effective versus Delta.
What concerns me about that case and some of these other anecdotal stories with similar breakthrough percentages is that it can also speak to possible vaccine batch quality issues in a given region/area. The storage and transport of the mRNA vaccines is a bit complex already to ensure effectiveness.
What? I cited a recent study from Britain. Did you read the comment thread and the supplied references or are you just knee-jerking?
I then provided reasons why the two known datasets that might sugggest particularly poor vaccine efficacy versus Delta (both of which I was aware of) should be taken with a grain of salt. In the case of Mass, the dataset is small and hard to extrapolate from, and the Israelis released neither their data not their methodology so we can't evaluate the quality of the study.
Unless you can explain otherwise those are both perfectly valid reasons not to cherrypick those studies to make the case here, particularly given they contradict a mountain of evidence that leads to different conclusions.
Of course, you're more than free to similarly critique the citations I provided if you care to.
Frankly, I'm not sure you know what the No True Scotsman fallacy is...
Just looked at our census data again today, 50% of the patients hospitalized in our community hospitals are vaccinated. Not a huge sample size, but still. I'm not sure if our health system reports on this data or not.
I wanted to get vaccinated, registered my "interest" to get vaccinated months ago, then waited for the invitation to book an appointment, booked my first, then second appointment.
This process took months, amid shortages in Pfizer, waiting times of more than an hour on the phone to book appointments, their online booking system simply not working during high demand.
What I'm saying is, as a person highly motivated to get vaccinated, it wasn't easy.
Our gov and officials tell us how lazy we are to not be vaccinated, but I can understand why a lot of people aren't. In some cases it is made too hard to jump through all the hoops.
I really don't understand the anti-vaxxers. I mean, OK, when the vaccine first came out, I could understand a small measure of hesitancy. Hell, I even said something to the effect of "I don't necessarily want to be first in line."
But at this point, the vaccines have been given to, what, billions of people? And the number of people who have suffered severe ramifications that can be attributed to a vaccine rounds to zero. And as far as "Well, we don't know the long-term effects" arguments go... OK, superficially that sounds reasonable. But there isn't, to the best of my knowledge, even a good theoretical explanation of how/why to expect any long-term effects. The vaccine itself is eliminated from your system in a few days if I understand correctly, leaving behind only anti-bodies manufactured by your body.
So yeah, I guess it's possible, in principle, that 3 years from now, or 10 years from now, or whatever, people that took the vaccine could start keeling over spontaneously, or growing third eyeballs in the center of their foreheads or something. But the odds of that happening seem way, way, way beyond even "ludicrously low". To my way of thinking, it "rounds to impossible". So I'd like to know why these folks think differently and apparently expect something bad to happen if they take the vaccine.
I think “being statistically unlikely of a negative outcome” is the wrong argument though. That argument can be made regarding COVID-19 as well as the vaccines, particularly among the largest age demographic currently expressing vaccine hesitation. They are statistically unlikely to die from Covid too.
The best thing to do at least in the US is for the FDA to fully approve the vaccine, both for adults and for children. I suspect you will always have 10-15% that are vaccine holdouts no matter what, but until there is full FDA approval, you will never ever reach 70-75%.
These vaccines aren’t even a year old. If there were long term side effects, do you think they would show up in a few months? Have we even had enough time to see if people are having trouble getting pregnant? Let alone get vaccinated and then gestate a child to term.
Sure, act like the vaccines have been around forever. You are revealing your age. Some of us have seen this show before in 2009 and in the 1970s. Even with the best intentions, scientists make mistakes.
If there were long term side effects, do you think they would show up in a few months?
Perhaps not. But, again, does anybody have any particular reason, including even a theoretical justification, for believing there will be "long term side effects?" Given that the actual vaccine material is eliminated from your system in a matter of days, leaving behind only anti-bodies that were produced by your body?
I mean, sure, one can play the "anything is possible" card, but that is the same card that lets one claim that we are living in The Matrix, or that there is an invisible teapot in orbit around the Sun somewhere between Earth and Mars.
Sure, act like the vaccines have been around forever.
I'm not.
You are revealing your age.
I'm pretty sure you're wrong about that, and even if I were, what does my age have to do with anything?
My point was, and remains, that nobody has put forth anything by way of either actual evidence, or a plausible theoretical argument, that seems to justify any strong belief in as-yet-unseen long term side effects of the various vaccines.
I just visited my grandmother's sister's family in the villages. They're not vaccinated at all, because they think that the vaccine is more dangerous than the Delta variant.
I was much more sad than angry, especially not at them: the political system confused people too much. I think we should all do what we can for unvaccinated people, but at this time it's all their personal responsability even if the misinformation was created on purpuse.
Hard to read this it’s just way too editorialized by the author. We get it you’re mad about the pandemic and how it’s handled. Supposedly being a doctor gives you more credibility but only on vaccinations not on public health policy.
Anyway im sick of reading articles with no other point than to make you mad. But its HP what can you expect.
Edit: not really going to argue with anyone my point stands. Just another stupid piece made to make people mad. Your comments further reinforce this. Be mad but it doesn’t help.
You shouldn't read editorials then, they're usually editorialized.
> Supposedly being a doctor gives you more credibility but only on vaccinations
We can drop the "supposedly" and vaccinations are what's being discussed.
The point is that an expert has watched people die because of irrational behavior on the part of anti-vaxxers. Not "to make you mad." You should try reading the article!
Why shouldn't people be mad about this? The point is that medical professionals are horrified and frustrated, and this article is helping us understand why.
Agreed. This kind of "journalism" is sheer garbage, whether it's supporting your viewpoint or not, and probably poses a more serious risk to the country than Covid ever will.
Like this example, where a frontline worker explains the dangers of going unvaccinated? How is that more dangerous than the pandemic that killed 600k and counting?
IMO Most of the "unvaccinated" are that way because they've already had covid and would rather be part of the control group for this large experiment. I just don't buy articles like this for the reason you stated.
> You would be the first person that I've heard say hey I already got it, therefore I'm not getting vaccinated.
The first person I heard say he's not getting vaccinated is a relative who had Covid. He was convinced by an uncle who's an ambulance driver (who later got vaccinated because they forced him and couldn't afford to lose his job).
> Even if you've gotten covid, go get vaccinated
Don't give people medical advice unless you're their personal doctor.
Folks - if someone you know is not vaccinated at this point in time (in the US) - it's entirely on them if they get sick. And guess what - they already know this, made that decision, and nothing you rant and rave about is going to change it.
Quit trying to drum up some mandatory vaccine rhetoric - or villianize these people. Just leave them alone and go about your life in whatever way you think is appropriate for your own wellbeing.
Vaccinated people do not need to wear masks to protect unvaccinated people at this point in time.
It's time to stop catering policy towards a small percentage of the population that has decided for whatever reason to not get vaccinated. These people largely understand what they are doing - leave them alone and get on with life!
A couple of thoughts here. (1) There are a significant number of people relying on us reaching herd immunity because they either can't get the vaccine, or if they can get it they might not be fully protected by it. For that population, getting everyone vaccinated IS important and worth attempting. (2) More importantly, a spike in hospitalizations could threaten the healthcare system as a whole if we run out of ICU beds, exhaust doctors, expend billions in care, etc. The cost of the unvaccinated isn't borne just by them - its paid by all of us when they show up in the hospital needing expensive care, and/or we are forced to shutdown our economy out of concern over overfilled ICUs. That makes a discussion of mandatory vaccination completely reasonable, and not simply rhetorical.
We should have tied CARES Act payments to vaccination... I'm guessing a $500 check would have persuaded almost everybody to get the shot. In the end the ROI of herd immunity might have been worth it?
We're spent trillions already, and seem to be on course for a few more. At some point, the cost and devastation to the economy outweighs the costs of the pandemic. It's dark and brutal - but that's how high level policy has to be formed, ie. it's an unreasonable goal to prevent 100% of illnesses and death.
> (1) There are a significant number of people relying on us reaching herd immunity
Herd Immunity can be reached either by vaccinations, previous infections, or both. We're well on track to reach the "both" mark, or possibly are already past it.
Good point on herd immunity. Also good point on the devastation to the economy and costs of pandemic. It's that "dark and brutal" logic that leads me to argue mandatory vaccination should be on the table as an option to bring down human and economic costs.
A gentle reminder that no children under 12 have been vaccinated yet, and so the behavior of unvaccinated adults affects more people than you're talking about here.
Statistics seem to imply children under 12 are nearly 100% safe (so far). This is a major reason the vaccine hasn't been prioritized for children.
If children were at serious risk here, a children vaccine would have been prioritized long ago - well before we prioritized getting vaccines to the 75 and older age group.
The entire duration of the pandemic has seen such a miniscule amount of infected children - and even fewer with serious symptoms or death - that it's absurd to base policy on this. It's statistically far more likely children will die on their way to school than become ill and experience serious complications.
We should stop basing policy off likelihoods which are prefixed by multiple zeros.
It would seem it's exceptionally rare, and even more rare to develop complications or death.[1]
And the only people they can transit it to that would be "at-risk" are people who've had the vaccine available to them for free, for months and chosen explicitly to not get it. That's their choice, and we should not cripple the country over it.
I can't tell if you're being facetious or not, forgive me.
We can't base policy off something that effects an extreme minority of the population, like this 2.7% statistic you cited. We'd never do anything if that were the case...
The affected people should take all necessary precautions available (get vaccinated if applicable, wear a N95 or KN95 mask, shelter isolated at home, etc). Everyone else needs to go back to work, school, stores, restaurants, etc.
Adding to the thoughts before, letting the virus spread and mutate among the unvaccinated to create a new variant sounds like a reset on the progress we've made. With the Delta we got lucky, our vaccines still largely work. I'm not sure how long the luck will hold on with more variants.
I'm all for leaving people alone to their own decisions. But with this, their decisions greatly affect me and society at large.
You won't stop mutations. It's a pandemic, world-wide - and short of blocking all international travel, freight/shipping, etc - if there is a new mutation somewhere in the world, it will eventually land here in the US.
Herd immunity - either reached by vaccinations, previous-infections, or both - is all we can hope for.
Good news is, we don't need unvaccinated people's cooperation to reach herd immunity - they will eventually have natural immunity anyway.
Of course, we can never stop all mutations. However, for mutations to be useful for the virus, they do need to happen at an evolutionary scale. Especially because we're lucky that SARS-CoV-2 mutates much slower than Influenza and HIV.
If the rate of transmission reaches the elusive herd immunity, the time-frame for the virus to evolve into evading vaccines grows significantly longer, even with a non-zero mutation rate.
Lastly, antibodies created via the mRNA vaccines have a broader binding affinity to different variants than those from natural immunity [1].
Again, the goal is to not eradicate, but to scale it down to the point where it is statistically not a threat.
Your original point was we got lucky with the Delta variant because our current vaccines still work.
I'm saying it doesn't matter - even if we had a 100% vaccination rate, some new variant will develop someplace that's being ravaged right now (say, India) and spread to the US eventually anyway. If our vaccines still work - great... if they don't, well.. where are we then?
Lastly, the numbers already indicate it's statistically not a threat to the overwhelming majority of the US population as-is.
I wasn't talking just about the US, I think we need very high levels of vaccination everywhere to make it statistically not a threat. We need to control the spread of the virus to levels where it's not mutating at evolutionarily scales, _everywhere_, and the only way to effectively do that is vaccines.
It's not a threat at this very moment, for this very point in time, but since we're allowing the virus to spread at such evolutionarily scales, inside and outside the US, a new variant popping up that evades vaccines is statistically very possible, and pose a significant threat to my own and society's well being.
I'm trying to argue that this is not a personal choice issue, rather a public health one.
You may want to have av word with my wife who is under strong immunodepressants and did not react to the vaccine. Three times. Two kind of vaccines.
The healthy unvaccinated dickheads idiots, because they are idiots but do not realize it, should simply be forced to get a vaccine or be put aside from society.
And because they are idiots and won't understand it anyway, do not spend to much resources trying to explain that.
I can't get antidepressants partly because of these people. And partly because doctors think they know better than everyone else.
And also because they simply outright refuse to see me or they got too many patients.
Just let me sign a waiver so I can get my medication freely, I don't need any other healthcare (no point in fixing a broken leg when you're dead, right?)
Is it? Without cause or basis? If you had some of that, an expert might be able to answer your concerns. Comments like "it might give you cancer" only serve to Stoke more baseless fear.
And also remember that list of unknown adverse interactions is as long when contacting covid. Only that has a much higher rate of observed illness and death.
Restrictions have been eased. There are indications that the virus has mutated into a more threatening form while keeping it’s high transmissibility. Louisiana appears to be running out of beds.
Los Angeles county, where the doctor who wrote the piece is based, currently is at 70% capacity for ICU. Which is not as bad as the last peak, when it was 93%, but is not great, and it's trending upward.
Which is typical. What you're referring to is part of the hype campaign of the last year. Hospitals' ICU are _normally_ at about 70% occupancy. The data below is from 2010, in fact.
"The national average I.C.U. occupancy in 2010 was 67 percent, according to the Society of Critical Care Medicine, though the occupancy baseline changes depending on the place, time of year and size of hospital. "
There is an enormous spike happening right now. I believe it is because people have stopped wearing masks and social distancing, and the vaccination rate is ... actually not as bad as I'd expect (50%), but not enough to dampen new infection diffusion, especially given other practices.
The political pushback is going to be an enormous factor. Gov. DeSantis panders to the GOP ignorant; this is, after all, Trump's home state.
At this point, we need to recognize the genie isn’t going back in the bottle. COVID 19 isn’t going away by Easter or when warm weather arrives, or when…
Vaccinate yourself, get a booster when they come out, and stop waiting for herd immunity. It will be here right after herd immunity for the cold and flu set in.
Most people aren't doctors, epidemiologists, or scientists of any sort. Nobody can be experts at everything, so we rely on expert authorities to break things down for us. Since we're not experts ourselves, we cannot independently verify what the experts are saying, which means our relationship with them is built on trust. But what happens when a nation becomes so fiercely divided along political lines that we collectively stop trusting expert authorities?
What's more, people don't like being told they're wrong. They especially don't like being talked down to. When experts (and more importantly, those arguing on social media on behalf of those experts) use demeaning language to address critics and people with concerns, the people don't respond well. Some of them will begrudgingly admit they were wrong, but humans are not purely logical creatures. Many will write off those who talk down to them as malicious or corrupt and use that as justification to disregard what they say.
We all need to start showing more respect to one another. Be patient and compassionate when dealing with people who are currently opposed to getting vaccinated - even if they don't show you the same courtesy. It wont earn you fake internet points and you're certainly not guaranteed to convince them of anything, but you'll never reach them doing anything else.
We don't like talking politics here on HN, but we can't hide from the truth: It's not an issue of respect or political polarization. It's the right-wing political movement which has an extreme ideology of reactionaryism. No matter what the issue or situation, they will be against it.
Talking more respectfully to them won't change it. It's not possible to talk to them, because most public communication is filtered through reactionary propaganda. For example, President Biden is generally respectful, but cannot reach them.
If we don't deal with this movement now, it will continue to grow stronger. Clearly there are no limits to it: Vaccination and masks to prevent a pandemic disease, attempts to overturn an election and seize power, etc.
Doesn't it feel a little too convenient to label your opposition as "beyond saving"? And how do you propose we "deal with this movement now" if you've convinced yourself they can't be reasoned with? I know it's not true from first hand experience. I've convinced a dozen people with hard-right political ideologies to get the vaccine. It hasn't always worked, but I've had much more success than not.
Respect is difficult, but it works. And you'll never be able to justifiably expect others to respect you if you don't respect them first. Be the change you want to see.
Also, one person being respectful is not enough to change things at scale - especially someone in as naturally divisive a position as POTUS.
I didn't label them as "beyond saving", etc. I'm not saying to be disrespectful. I'm saying that the problem isn't respect, it's the ideology of the political movement to reject masks, the vaccine, and everything else - there was no chance they would accept it; they are extreme reactionaries. Try to imagine a scenario where the government announced masks and a vaccine, and they all got in line. Respect is only a justification, a rhetorical technique they've used for a long time - adopt the position of a victim (and in fact, I don't see people being particularly disrespectful).
> naturally divisive a position as POTUS
It's not "naturally divisive"; that's only an issue of the reactionary political movement. Presidents have been uniting the country for generations. Biden is not divisive; Obama was not divisive; Trump and the reactionaries are.
> Doesn't it feel a little too convenient to label your opposition as "beyond saving"? And how do you propose we "deal with this movement now"
It's not convenient for me; it's more convenient to keep my head buried while the movement and the problem, which I agree is very difficult, grows worse. People don't want to face the catastrophe; neither do I.
It can't be more obvious; all the warning lights are blinking red. We have a responsibility to our ancestors, who faced catastrophes and built a society for us, and to our decedents, to face the problem and the hardship.
What if it's true and those top bullshitters (not all) are indeed lying all the time? Why would any decent human being excuse that or fail to call it out?
https://www.vaccines.gov/