Sure, being an essential part of the global supply chain for tech is important. It's also important to show support for Taiwan, to convince Japan, South Korea, etc from arming with nukes. That could set off a chain reaction in which everyone who is close says "f*ck it, I guess if everyone else is doing it..." The veneer of the US security umbrella folds and everyone suddenly feels they need to build (or retain) the bomb to protect themselves (like Ukraine failed to do in giving up theirs.) Now everyone needs MORE nukes because you have a LOT more targets.
NATO doesn't consider Ukraine as significant because they have vital tech they supply globally. Rather, NATO is concerned about an aggressive regional power that may have aims on more than just Ukraine.
Add half of Africa and some middle east. Ukraine with its top notch black earth is the literal 'breadbasket of Europe'. Hitler knew it and Stalin knew it very well when he forced starvation to death upon Ukrainian population to subjugate them.
> he forced starvation to death upon Ukrainian population to subjugate them
I don't mean to defend the Soviet regime here but in the interest of discussion: the "to subjugate them" aspect is still somewhat contested [0]. I'm not sure whether it would even class as genocide according to the UN's own criteria.
From my understanding: the famine was definitely man-made, the question is more about whether it was intentional.
If china succeeds in leapfrogging ASML. With their particle accelerator light source it likely won’t matter. They will have a home engineered piece of the solution.
they wont. full stop. they've even admitted as much in industry. they'll be extremely happy if they're (only!) a few years behind tsmc
at this point, what will be a real earthshaker is if china manages to get past 7nm. smic has gotten a long way but even that company's 7nm process has serious limitations (much higher cost and worse yields)
and anyways, aside from a handful of use cases (ai being one tbh), 7nm chips are more than viable for any general purpose task. a "leapfrog" is quickly diminishing from a "need" to a "want", and the resulting governmental support is fading as well. of course, it'll still be a high priority for the chinese, but it's not like top of the list.
You are two years behind in your assessment, and technology moves pretty fast especially when you're trying to catch up.
You could buy phones with SMIC 7nm chips as early as mid 2024, that means yields were good enough around mid 2023.
This indicates they'd be on track to do 5nm this year, which is what the news articles indicate. The impressive part is that this is catching up with ASML+TSMC combined. There's no other company or government in the world that has achieved this vertical in the last few decades. China is willing to sink Manhattan project level resources into this, for good reason.
> Not sure why you are basing your whole argument on euv.
I'm not. We were talking about "leapfrogging" and that naturally requires a technology that enables processes beyond EUV's capabilities.
In fact, many hours before you responded to my post, I responded to my own post with this: "My rough best guess is that they’ll be shipping euv-involved chips by 2028."
> There's nothing magical about it that prevents them from stealing/reinventing it.
If it was so easy they'd have done it already.
No, it's just insanely complicated to implement and the innovations required are not just the conceptual technology itself, but the high precision manufacturing prowess required to actually execute it.
And again, I think they're probably gonna have it before 2030. Hell, I could be convinced that they're going to start taping out EUV-based chips by the end of next year, although I would require a beer wager for that :)
But we were talking about leapfrogging, and that's "only" parity.
Instead of using vague abstractions like "pouring unlimited money" and "hiring the right people", I'd hope that predictions would be predicated more on the actual specifics of the progress being made, i.e what are specific engineering problems to be overcome and what is their progress in doing so. If it's not, it's really just astrology one is using.
The Chinese perspective itself certainly isn't anything close to these vague abstractions, outside of vague anti-western polemics or nationalist chest-beating. After all with the same logic we're pouring a "manhattan's worth of funding" into "AI", dosen't mean we're going to be reaching Gen-AI anytime soon!
Industrial espionage is a thing. China has so far managed to get every tech they ever wanted and I don't see why EUV could not be stolen. Everything, even very advanced technology, can be reverse engineered, especially if you already know conceptually what it does. Software and data (and blueprints) can be stolen as well. ASML and TSMC have a lot of security in place but at least on HN I would assume everybody knows that that does not guarantee perfection. If the knowledge is out there, it will spread.
> Everything, even very advanced technology, can be reverse engineered, especially if you already know conceptually what it does
This isn't true. Maybe for software it is. Manufacturing is one of the hardest stages, and China lacks tooling for the ultra-high precision engineering required to actually implement this process.
It's kind of like building a nuclear bomb - conceptually it's easy. Hell, the first nuke was dropped before the microwave oven was commercially available.
The real challenge is manufacturing the damn thing. Refining all of that uranium is not an easy task - even today.
China has spent billions of USD equivalent trying to copy EUV. They have had access to EUV installations and fully disassembled them (funny story: they broke it putting it back together).
They are highly motivated, they have a ton of money, and frankly, they're no a bunch of dummies.
And yet, they still don't have it. (fwiw i think they will by the end of 2030)
Isn’t the point that other countries would have to think twice before letting China get their hands on Taiwan? The advantage to China would be immense if they secured Taiwan.
You're assuming that China is afraid of "other countries", or that those countries can do anything to stop them. Truth is, China right now is challenging the US for global dominance, they are afraid of noone. They don't need anyone's permission to "get their hands on Taiwan".
No, I’m assuming that they’ll want to get their hands on Taiwan with as little mess as possible and keep the assets intact if possible. If their only choice was to start a global war, I don’t think they’ll do it regardless if they would win or not.
Well, that assumption might be wrong as well... Yes, taking control of the TSMC fabs is the best possible outcome for China, but destroying them is also not so bad. It limits the supply of bleeding edge semiconductors to the Western world, giving Huawei and other Chinese companies more time to catch up.
WW3 would not be sanctions rivaling those Russia are under. WW3 would be zero trade, submarines sinking the shipping etc. What Russia is under is just sanctions, not real war measures.
Maybe. It would certainly be good for Intel if Taiwan's and South Korea's microchip manufacturing were destroyed. They'd have a near-total monopoly, like int the 90s.
But it would be incredibly stupid strategically.
I think only sensible path is to give Taiwan nuclear weapons. It removes all the dangers for ever.
There is another alternative that is much more likely: China gets to or at near parity and then no longer needs to get their hands on Taiwan. At that point they could just as easily destroy it as that they would want to occupy it. And that is a lot simpler. As long as Taiwan has an edge they are safer than when they are a commodity.
Kinda like Hong Kong when it came to the finance industry. Agree mostly. Instead of destroy, I would say China wouldn’t need to/care to maintain their fine balance/
special relationship with Taiwan anymore and would throw their weight around more.
This is true but it has been fascinating seeing them trying to catch up. Necessity being mother of invention, all of that.
It is still hard to get much of a clear picture on how well they are doing on this stuff. Chinese companies are saying they are near parity, the opposition says they are 15 years behind, the reality is probably somewhere in between.
While they have made a lot of quick progress, that is no guarantee for future gains.
My worry is that they're not bringing anything new to the table except "this is actually possible if you will it".
On the flipside Canon's Nanoimprint Lithography promises lower cost, even if their feature size is 15nm in practice. They also appear to be having competition now:
Recently Canon shipped the first commercial device and it appears that this path will see continued development. 15nm(14 advertised) is already good enough for, say, automotive applications.
MIC2025 made china manufacture over 90% of all semi domestically. They have replacements/clones of every jelly bean part imaginable. China can keep manufacturing like nothing happened if/when Taiwan is erased from the map.
If you were Taiwanese this would worry you?
It makes complete sense for Taiwan to invest in maintaining it’s “silicon shield” even as china tries to catch up with fabrication on the mainland.